An ecosystem in a cold climate river basin is vulnerable to the effects of climate change affecting permafrost thaw and glacier retreat. We currently lack sufficient data and information if and how hydrological processes such as glacier retreat, snowmelt and freezing-thawing affect sediment and nutrient runoff and transport, as well as N₂O emissions in cold climate river basins. As such, we have implemented well-established, semi-empirical equations of nitrification and denitrification within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which correlate the emissions with water, sediment and nutrients. We have tested this implementation to simulate emission dynamics at three sites on the Canadian prairies. We then regionalized the optimized parameters to a SWAT model of the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), Canada, calibrated and validated for streamflow, sediment and water quality. In the base period (1990–2005), agricultural areas (2662 gN/ha/yr) constituted emission hot-spots. The spring season in agricultural areas and summer season in forest areas, constituted emission hot-moments. We found that warmer conditions (+13% to +106%) would have a greater influence on emissions than wetter conditions (−19% to +13%), and that the combined effect of wetter and warmer conditions would be more offsetting than synergetic. Our results imply that the spatiotemporal variability of N₂O emissions will depend strongly on soil water changes caused by permafrost thaw. Early snow freshet leads to spatial variability of soil erosion and nutrient runoff, as well as increases of emissions in winter and decreases in spring. Our simulations suggest crop residue management may reduce emissions by 34%, but with the mixed results reported in the literature and the soil and hydrology problems associated with stover removal more research is necessary. This modelling tool can be used to refine bottom-up emission estimations at river basin scale, test plausible management scenarios, and assess climate change impacts including climate feedback.

The predicted long lag time between a decrease in atmospheric deposition and a measured response in vegetation has generally excluded the investigation of vegetation recovery from the impacts of atmospheric deposition. However, policy-makers require such evidence to assess whether policy decisions to reduce emissions will have a positive impact on habitats. Here we have shown that 40 years after the peak of SOₓ emissions, decreases in SOₓ are related to significant changes in species richness and cover in Scottish Calcareous, Mestrophic, Nardus and Wet grasslands. Using a survey of vegetation plots across Scotland, first carried out between 1958 and 1987 and resurveyed between 2012 and 2014, we test whether temporal changes in species richness and cover of bryophytes, Cyperaceae, forbs, Poaceae, and Juncaceae can be explained by changes in sulphur and nitrogen deposition, climate and/or grazing intensity, and whether these patterns differ between six grassland habitats: Acid, Calcareous, Lolium, Nardus, Mesotrophic and Wet grasslands. The results indicate that Calcareous, Mesotrophic, Nardus and Wet grasslands in Scotland are starting to recover from the UK peak of SOₓ deposition in the 1970's. A decline in the cover of grasses, an increase in cover of bryophytes and forbs and the development of a more diverse sward (a reversal of the impacts of increased SOₓ) was related to decreased SOₓ deposition. However there was no evidence of a recovery from SOₓ deposition in the Acid or Lolium grasslands. Despite a decline in NOₓ deposition between the two surveys we found no evidence of a reversal of the impacts of increased N deposition. The climate also changed significantly between the two surveys, becoming warmer and wetter. This change in climate was related to significant changes in both the cover and species richness of bryophytes, Cyperaceae, forbs, Poaceae and Juncaceae but the changes differed between habitats.

Mobile in situ concentration and meteorology data were collected for the Chino Dairy Complex in the Los Angeles Basin by AMOG (AutoMObile trace Gas) Surveyor on 25 June 2015 to characterize husbandry emissions in the near and far field in convoy mode with MISTIR (Mobile Infrared Sensor for Tactical Incident Response), a mobile upwards-looking, column remote sensing spectrometer. MISTIR reference flux validated AMOG plume inversions at different information levels including multiple gases, GoogleEarth imagery, and airborne trace gas remote sensing data. Long-term (9-yr.) Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer satellite data provided spatial and trace gas temporal context.For the Chino dairies, MISTIR-AMOG ammonia (NH₃) agreement was within 5% (15.7 versus 14.9 Gg yr⁻¹, respectively) using all information. Methane (CH₄) emissions were 30 Gg yr⁻¹ for a 45,200 herd size, indicating that Chino emission factors are greater than previously reported.Single dairy inversions were much less successful. AMOG-MISTIR agreement was 57% due to wind heterogeneity from downwind structures in these near-field measurements and emissions unsteadiness. AMOG CH₄, NH₃, and CO₂ emissions were 91, 209, and 8200 Mg yr⁻¹, implying 2480, 1870, and 1720 head using published emission factors. Plumes fingerprinting identified likely sources including manure storage, cowsheds, and a structure with likely natural gas combustion.NH₃ downwind of Chino showed a seasonal variation of a factor of ten, three times larger than literature suggests. Chino husbandry practices and trends in herd size and production were reviewed and unlikely to add seasonality. Higher emission seasonality was proposed as legacy soil emissions, the results of a century of husbandry, supported by airborne remote sensing data showing widespread emissions from neighborhoods that were dairies 15 years prior, and AMOG and MISTIR observations. Seasonal variations provide insights into the implications of global climate change and must be considered when comparing surveys from different seasons.

Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients, increasing metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and climate change have led to severe ecological degradation in the coastal zone, while few studies have focused on the combined impacts of pollution and climate change on the coastal ecosystems at the global level. A global overview of nutrients, metals, POPs, and major environmental changes due to climate change and their impacts on coastal ecosystems was carried out in this study. Coasts of the Eastern Atlantic and Western Pacific were hotspots of concentrations of several pollutants, and mostly affected by warming climate. These hotspots shared the same features of large populations, heavy industry and (semi-) closed sea. Estimation of coastal ocean capital, integrated management of land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone, enhancement of integrated global observation system, and coastal ecosystem-based management can play effective roles in promoting sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems. Enhanced management from the perspective of mitigating pollution and climate change was proposed.

Significant volumes of research over the past four decades has sought to elucidate the social, infrastructural, economic, and human health effects of climate change induced surface flooding. To date, epidemiological and public health studies of flooding events have focused on mental health effects, vector-borne diseases, and infectious enteric disease due to floodwater contact (i.e. typically low consumption rates). The inherent nature of groundwater (i.e. out of sight, out of mind) and the widely held belief that aquifers represent a pristine source of drinking water due to natural attenuation may represent the “perfect storm” causing direct consumption of relatively large volumes of surface flood-contaminated groundwater. Accordingly, the current study sought to systematically identify and synthesize all available peer-reviewed literature pertaining to the nexus between surface flooding, groundwater contamination and human gastroenteric outcomes. Just 14 relevant studies were found to have been published during the period 1980–2017, thus highlighting the fact that this potentially significant source of climate-related exposure to environmental infection has remained understudied to date. Studies differed significantly in terms of type and data reporting procedures, making it difficult to discern clear trends and patterns. Approximately 945 confirmed cases of flood-related enteric disease were examined across studies; these concurred with almost 10,000 suspected cases, equating to approximately 20 suspected cases per confirmed case. As such, no regional, national or global estimates are available for the human gastrointestinal health burden of flood-related groundwater contamination. In light of the demonstrable public health significance of the concurrent impacts of groundwater susceptibility and climate change exacerbation, strategies to increase awareness about potential sources of contamination and motivate precautionary behaviour (e.g. drinking water testing and treatment, supply interruptions) are necessary. Mainstreaming climate adaptation concerns into planning policies will also be necessary to reduce human exposure to waterborne sources of enteric infection.

Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system.By 2046–2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH3), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NOx, VOC, and NH3, while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations.

In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the “Technology Driver Model” (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046–2050) compared to a current-year period (2001–2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046–2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O3) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NOx compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO2 and O3, respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH4 changes to dominate the increases in O3, while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NOx, and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH3, SO2, and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong dependence on season and specific U.S. regions.

Warming and acidification are expected impacts of climate change to the marine environment. Besides, organisms that live in coastal areas, such as bivalves, can also be exposed to anthropogenic pollutants like pharmaceuticals (PhACs) and endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs). In this study, the effects of warming and acidification on the bioconcentration, metabolization and depuration of five PhACs (sotalol, sulfamethoxazole, venlafaxine, carbamazepine and citalopram) and two EDCs (methylparaben and triclosan) were investigated in the mussel species (Mytilus galloprovincialis), under controlled conditions. Mussels were exposed to warming and acidification, as well as to the mixture of contaminants up to 15.7 μg L−1 during 20 days; followed by 20 days of depuration. All contaminants bioconcentrated in mussels with levels ranging from 1.8 μg kg−1 dry weight (dw) for methylparaben to 12889.4 μg kg−1 dw for citalopram. Warming increased the bioconcentration factor (BCF) of sulfamethoxazole and sotalol, whereas acidification increased the BCF of sulfamethoxazole, sotalol and methylparaben. In contrast, acidification decreased triclosan levels, while both stressors decreased venlafaxine and citalopram BCFs. Warming and acidification facilitated the elimination of some of the tested compounds (i.e. sotalol from 50% in control to 60% and 68% of elimination in acidification and warming respectively). However, acidification decreased mussels' capacity to metabolize contaminants (i.e. venlafaxine). This work provides a first insight in the understanding of aquatic organisms' response to emerging contaminants pollution under warming and acidification scenarios.

Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees’ sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers of global change.

Agriculture-based climate change mitigation may occur through enhancing the carbon sink or through reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from agricultural residue treatment, as open burning of agricultural residues produces millions of tons of GHGs and air pollutants annually worldwide. Charring slashed biomass, termed as slash-and-char, has been considered as a promising alternative to open burning in dealing with agricultural residues such as rice straw. Previous studies, however, focused on relatively sophisticated slash-and-char systems, which could not be practiced easily by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Here we introduce a simple slash-and-char system to mitigate the environmental problems associated with open burning of rice straw. This system could convert 30.7% of the initial carbon in rice straw into biochar, much higher than that retained in the ash generated by open burning (3.95%). It could also cut GHGs, particulate matters and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions by 26.9%, 99.0% and 99.4%, respectively. If open burning of rice straw was replaced by the slash-and-char, the annual emissions of GHGs, particulate matters and PAHs in China would decrease by at least 15.4 Tg, 1.51 Tg and 1.27 Gg, correspondingly. This decrease is nearly twice the size of China's estimated forest C sink (8.81 Tg).