Temperature has been associated with population health, but few studies have projected the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. To project future temperature-related disease burden in Tianjin, we selected years of life lost (YLL) as the dependent variable to explore YLL attributable to climate change. A generalized linear model (GLM) and distributed lag non-linear model were combined to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature on the YLL of non-accidental mortality. Then, we calculated the YLL changes attributable to future climate scenarios in 2055 and 2090. The relationships of daily mean temperature with the YLL of non-accident mortality were basically U-shaped. Both the daily mean temperature increase on high-temperature days and its drop on low-temperature days caused an increase of YLL and non-accidental deaths. The temperature-related YLL will worsen if future climate change exceeds 2 °C. In addition, the adverse effects of extreme temperature on YLL occurred more quickly than that of the overall temperature. The impact of low temperature was greater than that of high temperature. Men were vulnerable to high temperature compared with women. This analysis highlights that the government should formulate environmental policies to reach the Paris Agreement goal.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction. Nitrogen-enriched rivers are significant sources of atmospheric N2O. This study conducted a one-year field campaign in seven N-enriched rivers draining urban, rural, and agricultural land to determine the link between the production, concentrations, and emissions of N2O and land use. Estimated N2O fluxes varied between 1.30 and 1164.38 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 with a mean value of 154.90 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1, indicating that rivers were the net sources of atmospheric N2O. Concentrations of N2O ranged between 0.23 and 29.21 μg N2O-N L−1 with an overall mean value of 3.81 μg N2O-N L−1. Concentrations of ammonium and nitrate in urban and rural rivers were high in the cold season. The concentrations were also high in agricultural rivers in the wet season. N2O concentrations and emissions in rural and urban rivers followed a similar pattern to ammonium and a similar pattern to nitrate in agricultural rivers. A strong link between the concentrations and emissions of N2O and land use was observed. N2O concentrations in and emissions from the rivers draining the urban and rural areas were significantly higher than the rivers draining the agricultural areas (P < 0.01). Stepwise regression analysis indicated that dissolved N2O were primarily influenced by NH4+ in agricultural rivers and by NO3− in rural rivers; while dissolved N2O in urban rivers was primarily predicted by temperature and reflected the integrated impact of sewage input and river hydrology. Nitrate-N and NO3--O isotope data and linear regression of N2O and river water variables strongly indicated that dissolved N2O was mainly derived from nitrification in agricultural rivers and denitrification in rural and urban rivers.

There is increasing concern that standard laboratory toxicity tests may be misleading when assessing the impact of toxicants, because they lack ecological realism. Both warming and biotic interactions have been identified to magnify the effects of toxicants. Moreover, while biotic interactions may change the impact of toxicants, toxicants may also change the impact of biotic interactions. However, studies looking at the impact of biotic interactions on the toxicity of pesticides and vice versa under warming are very scarce. Therefore, we tested how warming (+4 °C), intraspecific competition (density treatment) and exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos, both in isolation and in combination, affected mortality, cannibalism, growth and heat tolerance of low- and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. Moreover, we addressed whether toxicant exposure, potentially in interaction with competition and warming, increased the frequency of autotomy, a widespread antipredator mechanism. Competition increased the toxicity of chlorpyrifos and made it become lethal. Cannibalism was not affected by chlorpyrifos but increased at high density and under warming. Chlorpyrifos reduced heat tolerance but only when competition was high. This is the first demonstration that a biotic interaction can be a major determinant of ‘toxicant-induced climate change sensitivity’. Competition enhanced the impact of chlorpyrifos under warming for high-latitude larvae, leading to an increase in autotomy which reduces fitness in the long term. This points to a novel pathway how transient pesticide pulses may cause delayed effects on populations in a warming world. Our results highlight that the interplay between biotic interactions and toxicants have a strong relevance for ecological risk assessment in a warming polluted world.

Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system.By 2046–2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH3), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NOx, VOC, and NH3, while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations.

Environmental pollution is a topic of great interest because it directly affects the quality of ecosystems and of all living organisms at different trophic and systematic levels. Together with the global climate change, the long-term surviving of many species of plants and animals is threaten, distributional patterns at global and regional levels are altered and it results in local assemblages of species that are quite different from those that currently constitute coevolved communities. .For this study, the species Myotis myotis was used as bioindicator and it was sampled from two caves in the south-east of Sicily, Pipistrelli chosen as control area and Palombara chosen as polluted area, to measure the concentrations of trace elements in fur and liver tissues. Results showed higher content of essential elements in fur in bats sampled from Pipistrelli. Conversely, higher concentrations of toxic metals in liver such as As, Cd, Pb and Hg were measured in bat samples in Palombara cave, where specimens have a hunting area extended within the boundaries of the petrochemical plant. Nevertheless, we cannot consider Palombara population as polluted by metal contamination since their tissue concentrations are overall lower than toxic thresholds values suggested for small mammals. Likewise, we cannot exclude other kind of pollutants as potential stressors of the examined population, contributing with the decreasing of bat colonies in Sicily.

The Arctic is a unique and fragile ecosystem that needs to be preserved and protected. Despite its remoteness, plastic pollution has been documented in this region. In the coming years, it is likely to worsen since, with climate changes and the opening of new shipping routes, the human presence is going to increase in the whole area. Here, we investigated the presence of microplastics (MPs) in sub-surface water and in two mid-trophic level Arctic fishes collected off Northeast Greenland: the demersal bigeye sculpin, Triglops nybelini, and the pelagic polar cod, Boreogadus saida. Plastics debris were found in the water samples at a concentration of 2.4 items/m³ ±0.8 SD which is higher than in most seas at lower latitudes. Both fish species had eaten MPs with different proportion among the species, 34% for T. nybelini (n = 71) and 18% for B. saida (n = 85). The significant difference in the occurrence of MPs between the two species is likely a consequence of their feeding behavior and habitat. Polyethylene was the main plastic polymer for water samples (41%, n = 17) and polyester (34%, n = 156) for fish samples as analyzed by Fourier Transformed Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. Our data underscore that the Arctic regions are turning into a hotspot for plastic pollution, and this calls urgently for precautionary measures.

Warming and acidification are expected impacts of climate change to the marine environment. Besides, organisms that live in coastal areas, such as bivalves, can also be exposed to anthropogenic pollutants like pharmaceuticals (PhACs) and endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs). In this study, the effects of warming and acidification on the bioconcentration, metabolization and depuration of five PhACs (sotalol, sulfamethoxazole, venlafaxine, carbamazepine and citalopram) and two EDCs (methylparaben and triclosan) were investigated in the mussel species (Mytilus galloprovincialis), under controlled conditions. Mussels were exposed to warming and acidification, as well as to the mixture of contaminants up to 15.7 μg L−1 during 20 days; followed by 20 days of depuration. All contaminants bioconcentrated in mussels with levels ranging from 1.8 μg kg−1 dry weight (dw) for methylparaben to 12889.4 μg kg−1 dw for citalopram. Warming increased the bioconcentration factor (BCF) of sulfamethoxazole and sotalol, whereas acidification increased the BCF of sulfamethoxazole, sotalol and methylparaben. In contrast, acidification decreased triclosan levels, while both stressors decreased venlafaxine and citalopram BCFs. Warming and acidification facilitated the elimination of some of the tested compounds (i.e. sotalol from 50% in control to 60% and 68% of elimination in acidification and warming respectively). However, acidification decreased mussels' capacity to metabolize contaminants (i.e. venlafaxine). This work provides a first insight in the understanding of aquatic organisms' response to emerging contaminants pollution under warming and acidification scenarios.

Ecological effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition on two hardwood forest sites in the eastern United States were simulated in the context of a changing climate using the dynamic coupled biogeochemical/ecological model chain ForSAFE-Veg. The sites are a mixed oak forest in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (Piney River) and a mixed oak-sugar maple forest in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee (Cosby Creek). The sites have received relatively high levels of both S and N deposition and the climate has warmed over the past half century or longer. The model was used to evaluate the composition of the understory plant communities, the alignment between plant species niche preferences and ambient conditions, and estimate changes in relative species abundances as reflected by plant cover under various scenarios of future atmospheric N and S deposition and climate change. The main driver of ecological effects was soil solution N concentration. Results of this research suggested that future climate change might compromise the capacity for the forests to sustain habitat suitability. However, vegetation results should be considered preliminary until further model validation can be performed. With expected future climate change, preliminary estimates suggest that sustained future N deposition above 7.4 and 5.0 kg N/ha/yr is expected to decrease contemporary habitat suitability for indicator plant species located at Piney River and Cosby Creek, respectively.

In the 21st century, severe droughts associated with climate change will increase biomass burning (BB) in Brazil caused by the human activities. Recent droughts, especially in 2005, 2010, and 2015, caused strong socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The 2015 drought considered the most severe since 1901, surpassed the 2005 and 2010 events in respect to area and duration. Herein, based on satellite data, the 2005, 2010 and 2015 drought impacts on wildfire episodes and carbon monoxide (CO) variability during the dry and the dry-to-wet transition seasons were examined. The BB occurrences in the dry season were fewer during 2015 than during 2005 (−44%) and 2010 (−47%). Contrasting, the BB events in the dry-to-wet transition season, were higher during 2015 than during 2005 (+192%) and 2010 (+332%). The BB outbreaks were concentrated in the southern and southwestern Amazon during 2005, in the Cerrado region during 2010, and mainly in the central and northern Amazon during 2015, an area normally with few fires. The CO concentration showed positive variations (up to +30%) occurred in the southern Amazon and central Brazil during the 2005 and 2010 dry seasons, and north of 20 °S during the 2015–2016 dry-to-wet transition season. The BB outbreaks and the CO emissions showed a considerable spatiotemporal variability among the droughts of 2005, 2010, and 2016, first of them driven by local conditions in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), characterized by warm than normal sea surface waters and the other two by the El Niño occurrences.