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Foresight Settlement System in Scenario Planning, Improvement Regional Planning (Case Study: Isfahan Province)
2017
Parizadi, Taher | mostafavi saheb, soran | Shah mohamadnejad, Somaye
Regional Foresight, which focuses on some of the specific land area in a given territory sub-national aims to achieve the desired future decisions, will be operational. This article examines the spatial organization of Settlement systems in Isfahan province And Presentation of the urban system in the horizon 1420. This paper tries to identify the key factors influencing the development process at the regional scale, producing both possible and probable scenarios to provide the in the next 25 years Isfahan province. This research is a combination of documentary and survey methods in terms of category and is based on new methods in the science of future studies, analytical and exploratory in terms of nature, which is conducted by a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. Structural analysis are used to analyze data by use of MICMAC software. The results indicate that the key and strategic variables of Isfahan province development in Horizon 1420 includes: the way of countrys macro management, the way of managing the province, water resources, inter-institutional cooperation, population,Research & Development, role of transnational Province, Investment security, Industrial Production and mineral, level of IT, Tourism,production technology. Based on the findings, Isfahan province in terms of arrangement space systems will face in the next 25 years with five main scenario: Radial scenario, a scenario dismissed Islands, a cluster scenario, the scenario of multi-center, network scenario. Among the scenarios planned, the network scenario we can see the functional spatial integration in the region and the development integrated and balanced space.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Dispersion modeling drought caused by climate change in Iran using system dynamics
2017
Alizadeh, Shahmorad | Mohammadi, Hossein | Kardavani, Parviz
Drought changes for optimal operation management of water resources well is the sensible. That's why last round of very extensive research on modeling drought in the world and Iran is and using their water projects and has conducted numerous hydraulic. One of the goals dynamic systems modeling potential policies to improve system performance. Modeling SPI index as an indicator of the country's drought situation stations using radial neural network model for each station was done. Independent variables neural network, relative humidity, temperature and lack of objects, which were selected according to their impact on precipitation. SPI index is the dependent variable. In total period of 42 years calculated by SPI, 12-month and 348 standard score by calculating the SPI 24-month, 336 standard score is obtained for each station. At all stations, ETo values from January to July to December increased and then fell in July to its maximum level reached in all stations. The highest average monthly ETo values in Abadan and Ahvaz stations in July and 18/232 and 16/214 mm respectively happened.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Explaining the obstacles of the movement of capital in Iran with a spatial planning approach
2017
Mousavi, Mir Najaf | Kiani, Mostafa
The government system of' Iran is centralized, and because in unitary and single power states, the security of political center (capital) with the total security of political system (National Security) has a direct relationship, the capital movement in Iran becomes important from two aspects; the first is to organize Tehran city and balance urban and regional system of the country and the second is to maintain the political security of the country. Capital movement from Tehran to other cities has been among the issues for more than 220 years but nothing has been done for some reasons. The aim of this paper which is written by descriptive – analyzing and survey method is to identify the main obstacles and the challenges of processing the capital and to present the strategies to remove the obstacles. So 7 elements as Economic, political, security, executive, social-cultural, legal and natural-ecological elements are selected in 55 items and are weighed by the academic elite people. After analyzing the information and using the structural equations model the results showed that the legal factor holding 10 items has the most direct (0/089) and indirect effect and the natural-ecological factor has the least effect (0/033) in moving the capital. Also the results of the network analyzing model for preference survey showed that the experts give priority to executive obstacles which hold final weigh 0/218 and compatibility rate 0/022 stands at the first grade in the priority survey of the obstacles.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]The interactive relationship between spatial structure and regional flows system in South Alborz
2017
Azimi, Azadeh
Analysis and study of spatial structure and its relationship with regional flows changings is one of the most important issues in regional and country planning. In this paper we try to analyze the spatial structure of South-Alborz (that includes six provinces) based on passengers flow. In order to respond to questions and specific targets we used analytical-descriptive method. Also we used a lot of different statistical tests in ARC GIS and in order to analyze spatial organization of flows, we used another statistical test in UCINET and NET DRAW. This study is an applied and basic research and is a ex post facto. Based on findings the spatial structure of population (as a harmonious whole) has a relationship with passenger flows and these show a lot of forms and trends by time.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Place Vulnerability Assessment of Ardabil’s Infrastructures Using Passive Defense Approach
2017
Seyedin, Afshar | Amini varaki, Saeed | Rostami, Hussein | Yazdani, Mohamad Hussein
Although Iran has a strategic position in the Middle East and there are threats of neighboring and non-neighboring countries, projects and economic infrastructures have been established without proper defensive considerations and are targets for enemy threats and other offensive actions. The present study is an applied and developmental research that aims to study and scrutinize the vulnerability of infrastructures in Ardabil province from the perspective of passive defense. Moreover, analytic network process (ANP) approach is used in GIS environment with elements of physical and biological environment, accessibility, and infrastructures in order to carry out the research. The results of spatial pattern analysis and vulnerability zoning show that the spatial distribution of infrastructure in Ardabil province is cluster type (non-dispersive) and in terms of vulnerability, 7% of Ardabil province is located in highly vulnerable areas which are themselves among the most densely populated places with high amounts of established infrastructures. This is due to poor physical indicators and lack of sufficient managerial, industrial, and military institutions in these areas of the Ardabil province.
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