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Systematic Analysis of Strategic Variables of Regional Development in Scenario- based Planning (Case: Mazandaran Province)
2015
Zali, Nader | Zamanipoor, Masood
The present era is an era when rapid and amazing changes due to the rapid advancement of science and technology, political decisions by governments and other macro and micro factors arrive quickly which have a profound impact on the dominant trends. So, for the formulation of regional development scenarios in such era, realistic and systematic knowledge in the strategic area of planning seems to be essential. Using developmental approach and applying systems theory, the researcher in this study aimed to evaluate and analyze the development strategic variables of Mazandaran province as the main variables of scenario planning for regional development in horizon 1410. The methodology of this study is structural analysis. It is a qualitative research in terms of nature of the data, and a survey and documentary one in terms of methods of data collection. Cross analysis are used to analyze data by use of MICMAC software. The results indicate that the key and strategic variables of Mazandaran province development in Horizon 1410 includes: "the way of country’s macro management ," "inflation," "the way of managing the province", "Research & Development (R & D)", "level of IT (information technology)", "population", and finally "inter-institutional cooperation ". Meanwhile, the key capabilities and the priorities of the development of the province in Horizon 1410 include: "Crops", "gardens and nursery ", "aquaculture", "special economic zone of Amirabad", "tourism", "Fereidoon'kenar Port", "AmirAbad Port ".
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]The Evaluation of Urban Land Use Approach to Sustainable Development (Case: Piranshahr City)
2015
kashefidust, diman | Hajinejad, Ali
The topic of land and how to use it have always been the main topic of the urban planning and the space-place assessment and organizing of the efficient and urban performances is one of the most important and most effective axis urban Sustainable Development. The aim of the performance of this reseach is the quality and quantity assessment of the urban land use with constant Sustainable Development in Piranshahr. The manner of this research is analytic descriptive. To this purpose, there indicators of capacity compatibility and social justice have been used to achieve the sustainable development. In the first stage, it is paid to the quantitative assessment of existing uses and capacity index analysis, in the second stage it is paid to the qualitative assessment of use in view point of compatibility by using compatibility matrix and analysis of social justice index with the model of the nearest neighbor and swot model. The results of the quality and quantity analysis show that often efficient face with lack. This lack equals with 175.5 hectar. Also the most extent of Inconsistency is in the Usage Industry, Administrative, Residential and educational. This situation is expressive of the lack of the balance and disharmonious between the efficient that was caused by the urban planners lack enough attention. So it is essential to fit the environmental balance and economic and cultural of the urban Sustainable Development in the planning process.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Predicting of Urban Growth Pattern Using Logistic Regression Model in Gorgan Area
2015
galdavi, somayeh | mohammadzadeh, marjan | salman mahiny, abdolrassoul | najafi nejad, ali
Modeling urban development patterns is an important technique for understanding complex urban growth processes. In this study, Logistic Regression model was conducted to model urban growth pattern of Gorgan area in North Iran, during the period 1988-2025. To do this, remotely sensed imagery of years 1988, 1998 and 2007 were used to produce land use maps. Also, dependent and independents variables were created to perform urban growth pattern modeling. Then, urban changes were detected during 1988 – 2007 and urban change modelling was achieved using Logistic Regression. After that, future urban grow pattern was predicted. The results indicated that urban areas have increased during study time period. Validation of model results was performed using Pseudo-R2 and ROC values which were more than 0.27and 0.83 respectively. Furthermore, Logistic Regression was applied to predict urban growth patterns for the years of 2016 and 2025. According to the results, appropriate implementations are needed to control land use changes, particularly urban growth, in order to preserve environmental as well as ecological balances of the area. The result could be help the managers to monitor and prevent the unplanned urban development in future. Model’s extracted maps can be used for managing and controlling future urban development.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Zoning of Kerman City Vulnerability based on the Principles of Passive Defense
2015
Meimandi Parizi, Sedigheh | Kazeminiya, Abdolreza
Evaluation of these and the threat, much reduces costs in the event of crisis and better life with safety and creates security for citizens. On this basis assessment of cities vulnerability during the battles and compile appropriate ways to reduce vulnerability and damages is essential. Therefore this study sought to assess and vulnerability zoning of Kerman city from the perspective of passive defense with an emphasis on land uses and vital infrastructures and possible threats city as well as three indicators of population density, quality of buildings and empty spaces. To achieve this objective the Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used. Also using the ArcGIS software and it's analyze, Vulnerability maps were developed. Finally, by combining the zoning map the vulnerability of vital infrastructures and population and physical indicators, the final zoning map vulnerabilities in Kerman is achieved. According to the plan a wide range of domestic and central city are as are vulnerable to high and medium. The most vulnerable areas is Zone 3 and Zone4 is the safest area of Kerman city.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Planning Approach to Land Use Change Modeling Using Satellite Images Several Times Behbahan City
2015
Pourkhabbaz, Hamid Reza | Mohammadyari, Fatemeh | Aghdar, Hossein | Tavakoly, Morteza
Study of changes in the past and the destruction of resources and the feasibility and expected changes in the coming years can be planning and optimal use of resources and controlling non-fundamental changes in the future is an important step. The present study aimed to model the Behbahan using LCM city land use changes and Markov chain was used. In this regard, land use change detection using satellite images Landsat, ASTER and ETM+ (Image 2000) and OLI (Image 2014) was performed. Using logistic regression modeling and 6 variable power transmission, digital elevation models, slope, away from residential areas, the distance of agricultural, away from the road map and Evidence Likelihood was performed. For maps of the distance from residential areas, agricultural lands and away from the road distance analysis Euclidean distance and to evaluate the correlation between the independent variables and the dependent variable Cramer's correlation coefficient was used. The ROC indicator used to assess the validity of the model. Comparison of modeled area map with the map of 2014 shows the residential areas and agricultural land continues to be a growing trend will continue. As the residential area of 3157 hectares, 4180 hectares in 2014 to 15030 hectares to 20778 hectares of agricultural land increased. But the destruction of rangeland has not only not improved, but the intensity is much higher than the last.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Investigating on strategies of decentralization of Iran – Tehran before the revolution so far
2014
Yasouri, Majid | Hatami Nejad, Hossein | Asadzadeh, Hanieh
Decentralization is the strategy which democratizes of the political system and accelerating to achieve sustainable development, which currently has made the executive government circles become a hot issue. Despite the focused concentration of power and decision-making at the center or top-level officials, decentralization make this possibility to deal with low levels issues and problems of they own directly. Thus, this paper uses the method of descriptive - analytic and with a library collection - documents to review tackles decentralization and define the decentralization policy in Iran before and after the revolution program. Evaluation results show that in spite of decentralization policyIn most cases, development programs, unfortunately, these programs have not been successful and convergence has intensified in Tehran. Reality still shows the focus of activities, services and decision-making centers in Tehran. So the solution is to reduce the concentration of political power - administrative and decision-making and management of the local administration and management of provincial to provide the main way to deal with the approach of decentralization and reform of the governance structure and the reduced concentration of Tehran and the development of developing countries, decentralization
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Saveh Strategic Planning and Vision Developing
2014
Ashrafi, Yousef | Janbabanezhad, Mohammad Hossein
If you don’t know where you’re going, you might not get there. Urban Strategic planning and mainly vision developing is to determine position of the City that wants to reach. Revealing where the city wants to go, instead of continuing to do things in a routine way, city can focus their limited resources on programs that are most effective in achieving the vision. Acknowledging the important role of strategic planning and vision developing in contemporary cities, this paper tries to develop a vision for the city of Saveh in the form of strategic planning process. This research, based on objective is Applied, and based on the nature, analytical – descriptive. In the process of strategic analysis, External & Internal Factors Evaluation Matrix (EFEM & IFEM) is used.Based on the results of External & Internal Factors Evaluation Matrix, the best strategy for Saveh is to protect the stability of city. The final vision of Saveh, consisting six strategic aspects, which are: industrial and economic city, cultural – historical city, Healthy and sustainable city, enabling the processing of agricultural products, College city and Regional Scientific center, and Attractive and lively for sporting and cultural activities and festivals.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]The Evaluation and Revising of urban land use from the Point of View of social justice. (Case Study : Kashan)
2014
Poorahmad, Ahmad | Hataminejad, Hosein | Ziari, Keramatallah | Farajisabokbar, Hasanali | Vafaii, Aboozar
The appropriate locate of uses and the justice of in Spatial distribution is very significant in planning the urban land use. The high increase in physical and population development of city, the shortage of services uses and lack of equity to allocate the sorts of land uses in various areas in Kashan, cause the confusion in urban land use and endanger the city sustainable development. However , recognizing and revising each one of the city uses to achieve the appropriate criteria and the principles of planning in city sustainable development are the most important activities in this field. The method to the research is descriptive -analytic, which has engaged in assessing and evaluating the quality and quantity of urban uses in Kashan, by considering two significant and effective standards in land use (including capacity and social justice)and putting GIS software into operation in the framework of entropy standard model and the average of nearest neighbor and per capita standard. The results of the research indicate that uses do not have appropriate Spatial and locative distribution, so that analyzing them with the capacity indexes and social justice, indicates the quality and quantity commotion in uses of tenfold areas in Kashan.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]The analytical study of the effects of Afghan' settlement selection on the socio- economic development of boarder villages of Sistan region
2014
mirlotfi, mahmoudreza | jahantigh, hassanali
Boarder villages of sistan region in Iran are so less developed and their location on the boarder of Afghanistan has fueled this less development. Subsequently, Afghan's settlement in this region has caused some special socio-economic situation in sistan region and has overwhelmed lots of functions of this region's villages. The goal of this article is an analytical study on the effects of Afghan's settlement on the socio-economic development of boarder villages of Sistan. Based on the library study, field studies and questionnaire the method of this article was description- analytical study. The collected information was analyzed by means of Taxonomy method and spearman test inlet in SPSS software. The results of level taxonomy showed that among the 31 studied villages the number of 6 villages were on normal level and 25 others were on middle level or bellow. Also the results of spearman test with a degree of 99 percent certainty shows the correlation between afghan's settlement with economic development ( -0.814) and social development( -0.679) and concluded that the socio-economic situation of the region will improved by afghan withdrawal from Sistan area.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]The Evaluating of Land Use Suitability by the Method of Ecological Potential in the Ardebil Province toward Land use Planning
2013
Hataminejad, Hossein | Rajaei, Seyed Abbas | Salarvandian, Fatemeh | Teimouri, Iraj
One of the basic and important fundament of sustainable development is Land use planning and use of appropriated with environmental characteristic and use correct of natural sources in the region and country. Ardabil province is one of the regions that its land use in some of its places is not appropriated with ecological potential, especially in the Lands which they are under cultivation. Therefore, this article have intend to analogy of land use now with ecological potential in the province. To prepare the map of land use, utilized the ETM and ASTER image sensor 2002 and so used from information layers in the linked organizations and ground survey. Analogy of ecological potential in the province is done in the GIS and according to method of Makhduom of course with slightly changes. We compared the ecological potential with land use of the province by overlying of different layers. The maps of region’s ecological potential were prepared with overlying of different layers by combine code in GIS. The Results show there is disagreement in the Dry farming areas with ecological potential. In other words, that is 37% fields of dry farming and 6.7% cultivate in the country of Ardabil not agreement with ecological potential.
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