Abstract Although organic export agriculture is affected by climate change, it is an essential climate adaptation mechanism. The objective of this article is to examine the link between climate change, organic Peruvian agro-exports, and food security. Using Pearson's correlation and multiple regression methods, the study found that climate change as measured by air and seawater temperatures was related to Peruvian organic agro-exports in the period 2000-2022. There was also a strong association between organic agro-exports and food security both in Peru and globally. It is concluded that the prevalence of global undernourishment is directly affected by air and sea surface temperatures and that this phenomenon is inversely affected by Peruvian organic agro-exports; i.e., higher organic agro-exports increase food security. It is recommended that policymakers promote organic agro-exports as a climate change adaptation strategy in support of healthier diets for populations, global food security, and climate resilience.

Abstract This study aimed to measure yield gaps and the potential gains in production and revenue from mitigating these gaps for the four main food crops in Brazil and worldwide (rice, maize, soybean, and wheat). Based on the concepts of potential yield, observed yield, and yield gap, and data from the 2017 Brazilian Agricultural Census, a parameter for the potential yield of each crop was defined at the microregional level, and yield gaps and potential gains in production and revenue resulting from reducing these gaps were measured. The results showed that reducing yield gaps in Brazil for the analyzed crops may lead to an expansion in supply of these food products by almost 10% of the volume achieved in 2017, or the equivalent of 19 million tons. The greatest potential gains in yield and production were found for maize, 13.2%, valued at about US$ 1.7 billion (at 2017 prices). Soybean showed the lowest potential for gains in percentage terms (5.5%), but these gains would represent US$ 1.8 billion, the highest value among the crops analyzed.

Abstract: This paper projects and analyzes the regional impacts of climate change on the agricultural productivity of family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil between 2021 and 2050, using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The methodology adopted consists of a cross-sectional estimation of a production function in which agricultural productivity is determined by climatic, geographic, and productive factors. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating agricultural production into family farming and large-scale agriculture, indicating the magnitude and direction of impacts by crops and regions in Brazil, a country with a great territorial dimension and relevant and heterogeneous agricultural production. The results indicate that the agricultural productivity of family farming is more sensitive and therefore this type of producer could be more vulnerable to the phenomenon. On average, the effects will be negative in the North/Northeast regions and for cassava, maize, beans, and soybeans, with possible impacts on deforestation and on food supply. Productivity gains are expected in the southern region and for the cultivation of sugar cane and soybeans. Deterioration of food security of the vulnerable farmers and regional disparities may increase in Brazil.