This volume examines the various drivers of global change, including climate change, and the use of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology, as well as the outcomes of global change processes, including impacts on water quality and human well-being.

PR | IFPRI5 | EPTD | xv, 265 p. : col. ill. ; 24 cm.

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In recent years, a greater level of integration of the world economy and an opening of national markets to trade has impacted virtually all areas of society. The process of globalization has the potential to generate long-term benefits for developing countries, including enhanced technology and knowledge transfers and new fina- ing options supporting agricultural and economic development. However, risks of political and economic instability, increased inequality, and losses in agricultural income and production for countries that subsidize their agricultural and other e- nomic sectors threaten to offset potential benefits. Globalization can also have a profound impact on the water sector – in terms of allocation and use of water – and thus on food security as well. Other global change processes, particularly climate change, are also likely to have far-reaching impacts on water and food security, and societies around the world. To discuss these issues in-depth, the International Food Policy Research Institute, the Third World Centre for Water Management, Mexico, and the Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE), Costa Rica, held a three-day International Conference on “Globalization and Trade: Implications for Water and Food Security,” at CATIE’s Turrialba, Costa Rica, headquarters under the auspices of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food in 2005. The workshop set out to identify the major risks and emerging issues facing developing countries related to global economic and environmental change impacts on water and food security.

PR | IFPRI4 | EPTD

Rosegrant Mark W. et al., 'Global Water and Food Security: Megatrends and Emerging Issues', In Global change: Impacts on water and food security. Water Resources Development and Management, ed. Claudia Ringler; Asit K. Biswas; and Sarah A. Cline. Chapter 6. Pp. 17-47., IFPRI, 2009 | Book chapter

The authors of the recently completed Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (CA) concluded that there are sufficient water resources to produce food for a growing population but that trends in consumption, production and environmental patterns, if continued, will lead to water crises in many parts of the world. Only if we act to improve water use will we meet the acute fresh water challenge. Recent spikes in food prices, partially caused by the increasing demand for agricultural products in non-food uses, underline the urgent need to invest in agricultural production, of which water management is a crucial part. The world experienced similar pressure on per capita food supplies and food prices in the 1960s and 1970s, but the challenges now are different than those we experienced 50 years ago. The world's population is substantially larger, there are many more people living in poverty, and the costs of many agricultural inputs are much higher. The current situation and the long-term outlook require a fresh look at approaches that combine different elements such as the importance of access to water for the poor, providing multiple ecosystem services, rainwater management, adapting irrigation to new needs, enhancing water productivity, and promoting the use of low-quality water in agriculture. This special issue highlights the analysis behind a number of policy options identified by the CA, a five-year multi-disciplinary research program involving 700 scientists. This introductory article sets the background and context of this special issue, introduces the key recommendations from the CA and summarizes the papers in this issue.

Water is one of the most important limiting resources for food production. How much water is needed for food depends on the size of the population, average food consumption patterns and food production per unit of water. These factors show large differences around the world. This paper analyzes sub-continental dynamics of the water footprint of consumption (WFcₒₙₛ) for the prevailing diets from 1961 to 2009 using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The findings show that, in most regions, the water needed to feed one person decreased even if diets became richer, because of the increase in water use efficiency in food production during the past half-century. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition approach is used to analyze the contributions of the major drivers of WFcₒₙₛ for food: population, diet and agricultural practices (output per unit of water). We compare the contributions of these drivers through different subcontinents, and find that population growth still was the major driver behind increasing WFcₒₙₛ for food until now and that potential water savings through agricultural practice improvements were offset by population growth and diet change. The changes of the factors mentioned above were the largest in most developing areas with rapid economic development. With the development of globalization, the international food trade has brought more and more water savings in global water use over time. The results indicate that, in the near future and in many regions, diet change is likely to override population growth as the major driver behind WFcₒₙₛ for food.

The study of the impact of economic activities on natural resources through global supply chains is increasingly demanded in the context of the growing globalization of economies and product fragmentation. Taking Spain as a case study and a sector with significant economic and environmental impacts, the agri-food industry, the objective of this work is two-fold. First, we estimate the associated water impact, both from the production and consumption perspectives, paying special attention to the water embodied in production exchanges among countries and sectors. To that aim, we use an environmentally-extended multiregional input-output model (MRIO). Second, we assess the main driving factors behind changes in direct and embodied water consumption between the years 1995 and 2009 by means of a structural decomposition analysis. The MRIO model provides a comprehensive estimate of the economic linkages among regions and economic sectors and, therefore, allows calculating the environmental impacts over international value chains. The results indicate that the food industry exerts large impacts on global water resources, particularly given the remarkable interactions with the domestic and foreign agricultural sectors, These growing linkages show how consumption patterns, and, therefore, lifestyles, involve large environmental impacts through the whole and global supply chains.