This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

The water–climate-food security nexus is uniquely vulnerable in Central Asia, a region replete with transboundary water conflicts, shortages in land and water resources and high sensitivity to climate change. Using a water balance for the Amu Darya River Basin, we present a synthetic evaluation of future water use, crop yields, land and water productivities for the period 2016 to 2055 in Ahal, Dashoguz, Lebap, and Mary provinces in Turkmenistan. Modeled fut socio-economic scenarios include food security and diet change (FSD), export-oriented sustainable adaptation (ESA) and business as usual (BAU). Results show that water requirements and water deficits during growing seasons will exhibit a decreasing trend from 2016 to 2055 in most provinces under all three scenarios. Crop yields and land and water productivities will likely increase in the four provinces under both the FSD and ESA scenarios. Mary province had the highest mean income and losses of irrigated agriculture, with an annual average value of about 7 × 108 USD/year and 1.5 × 103 USD/year, respectively. Ahral province showed the largest annual mean land and irrigation water productivities for all three scenarios, up to about 800 USD/ha/year and 0.40 USD/m3/year respectively. Results obtained from this study provide tools to assist resource managers to identify vulnerabilities in the nexus of water, land and climate to ensure food security, water management, and sustainable development.

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a holistic concept used to understand the synergies and trade-offs of interdependent water, energy, and food resources. Despite its widespread use, this concept often overlooks environmental concerns. In addition, the lack of a systemic approach in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) has resulted in serious environmental degradation. For instance, the Aral Sea, situated at the terminus of the basin, is steadily shrinking, yet researchers studying the WEF nexus tend to overlook the upstream tributaries of the basin. This study aims to determine the extent to which research on the WEF nexus in the ASB in Central Asia has considered the environment through a systematic review of the literature published between 2012 and 2022. The results indicate that the number of WEF publications regarding the ASB has seen an upward trend, with a primary focus on the transboundary level and less research available on the local and national levels. This confirms the strong reliance of Central Asian states on one another for food, energy, and water resources. Furthermore, the results show that the majority of published studies either do not consider environmental concerns in their analyses at all or do so with little precision. Therefore, to achieve precise and sustainable outcomes, this study recommends the inclusion of environmental concerns along with basin-wide coverage in future WEF analyses. Finally, the WEF concept should be downscaled to the national and local levels in order to facilitate its implementation.

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a holistic concept used to understand the synergies and trade-offs of interdependent water, energy, and food resources. Despite its widespread use, this concept often overlooks environmental concerns. In addition, the lack of a systemic approach in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) has resulted in serious environmental degradation. For instance, the Aral Sea, situated at the terminus of the basin, is steadily shrinking, yet researchers studying the WEF nexus tend to overlook the upstream tributaries of the basin. This study aims to determine the extent to which research on the WEF nexus in the ASB in Central Asia has considered the environment through a systematic review of the literature published between 2012 and 2022. The results indicate that the number of WEF publications regarding the ASB has seen an upward trend, with a primary focus on the transboundary level and less research available on the local and national levels. This confirms the strong reliance of Central Asian states on one another for food, energy, and water resources. Furthermore, the results show that the majority of published studies either do not consider environmental concerns in their analyses at all or do so with little precision. Therefore, to achieve precise and sustainable outcomes, this study recommends the inclusion of environmental concerns along with basin-wide coverage in future WEF analyses. Finally, the WEF concept should be downscaled to the national and local levels in order to facilitate its implementation.

In today’s intrinsically connected world, the Water–Food–Energy–Climate Nexus (WFEC Nexus) concept provides a starting point for informed and transparent decision-making based on the trade-offs and synergies between different sectors, including aquatic ecosystems, food security, energy production, and climate neutrality. The WFEC Nexus approach is particularly applicable in regions requiring transboundary water management, such as Central Asia. Unfortunately, this region with unevenly distributed water resources—consisting of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—is characterized by data scarcity, which limits informed decision-making. However, open-source geodata is becoming increasingly available. This paper aims to fill Central Asia’s WFEC Nexus data gap by providing an overview of key data. We collected geodata through an integrated survey of stakeholders and researchers, stakeholder consultation, and literature screening. Sixty unique datasets were identified, belonging to one of six thematic categories: (1) climate, (2) hydrology, (3) geography and topography, (4) geomorphology, (5) ecology, and (6) anthropogenic uses. For each dataset, a succinct description, including a link to the online source, is provided. We also provide possible applications of using the presented datasets, demonstrating how they can assist in conducting various studies linked to the WFEC Nexus in Central Asia and worldwide.

Thoroughly understanding the security of water, energy and food (WEF) and the factors that influence them is essential for sustainable development management in any region. This study proposed a new analytical framework for WEF security evaluation in both individual sectors and the whole system, using the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) and four dimensions of security indicators: availability, self-sufficiency, productivity and accessibility. The internal relationships among the three sectors and the main factors influencing WEF security were analysed by Spearman’s rank correlation and radar graphs, respectively. The five countries in Central Asia (CA), which are experiencing WEF crises and facing great challenges in achieving their sustainable development goals (SDGs), were chosen as a case study in this paper. Our results showed that Kazakhstan attained the highest WEF security level, followed by Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; Tajikistan exhibited the lowest security level from 2000 to 2014. Three types of internal relationships among the three sectors were identified: synergies, trade-offs and unclassified. The unclassified relationship type accounted for the largest share of 54% in CA, suggesting great potential for synergetic improvement among the three sectors. Approaches for improving the country WEF security based on our research are as follows: Kazakhstan should prioritize food allocation and supply, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan should increase energy and food production and raise the supply level and usage efficiency of water and food, Turkmenistan should increase the available water resources and food production and improve the supply level and usage efficiency of water and energy, and Uzbekistan should both increase the available amount and enhance the WEF management performance.