To survive in today's competitive environment, companies must continuously develop and offer customers new products. To increase the probability of a successful business case of investing in the development of a new product, careful attention must be paid to risk analysis in terms of the present value of future potential income. The article considers an example of the research work of the Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, in the framework of which a technical and technological project was developed to produce a new product, like Mediterranean anchovy, from cheaper Baltic sprats. The main goal of this work is to explore the application multi-factor sensitivity and fuzzy real option analysis to the valuation of new product development project. The multivariate analysis of the sensitivity of the financial model of the greenfield production project described in this article revealed the main risk groups, as well as their degree of influence on the assessment of the Net Present Value of the project by a potential investor. The use of Fuzzy Real Option Valuation made it possible to evaluate the project with uncertain parameters, as well as to calculate the potential upside from preliminary refinement of parameters to eliminate negative scenarios. The described approach is applicable to risk assessment of new food product development and allows investors to make a more informed decision about participation in such projects.

One of the mechanisms for enhancing innovative processes in the industry is the application of the concept of the “four-link spiral”. In contrast to the 3-link spiral, this model as one of the most important components includes a “society”, acting as one of the actors of innovative transformations. Firstly, it is society that is the main consumer of innovative products being created and, thereby, establishes “requirements”, forming demands for the quality and parameters of future products; secondly, society, in turn, acts as the initiator and generator of innovations, forming the so-called “social capital” necessary for the implementation of directly innovative transformations. In this scientific work, the problems of the formation of a “smart specialization” strategy for the innovative development of the industrial sector of the national economic system based on the application of the four-link spiral concept are investigated. A system of quantitative indicators for assessing the innovative level of industrial development is presented. The experience of introducing the concept of a four-link spiral as a mechanism of innovative development of industry (on the example of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation) is given. The aim of the article is to describe innovation processes in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus and to develop an innovation transfer model.

An urgent problem is drying and processing of the wet dispersed waste, obtained in the production of food products, which can then be efficiently used as a fertiliser, for feeding livestock or as biofuel. A new design of a vibrating fluidised bed dryer has been developed, which, with low energy consumption, provides a pre-set productivity and the required final moisture content. The process of vertical oscillations of the body of a vibration dryer, together with the food waste contained in it, is analysed analytically, the necessary equivalent scheme is built, on the basis of which differential equations of the vertical oscillations of the body are compiled, their analytical solutions are obtained, and a numerical calculation is performed on a PC using the developed program.

The kinetics of plasma nitriding of CoCr alloy below temperatures of nitrides formation and mechanisms of nitrogen penetration are analyzed by proposed kinetic modeling in this article. Proposed nitrogen diffusion model is based on the trapping – detrapping (TD) model and developed taking into account the effect of the concentration dependent diffusivity of nitrogen, nitrogen adsorption on the surface of alloy and surface swelling process. The model indicates the influence of chromium atoms to nitrogen atoms diffusivity. The model consists of time and depth dependent diffusion, which is described by a partial differential equation, and it is solved by using Crank – Nicolson finite difference method. By fitting of experimental nitrogen depth profiles, it is shown that nitrogen diffusion coefficient varies with nitrogen concentration according to Einstein-Smoluchowski relation. Nitrogen depth profiles in plasma nitrided medical grade CoCr alloy (ISO 5831 – 12) at T = 400 °C for 1, 4 and 20 hours calculated on the basis of this model are in good agreement with experimental nitrogen profiles. Furthermore, the swelling process is showed and analysed, derived the dependency of swelling rate on nitriding duration – the swelling rate is inversely proportional to the square root of nitriding duration. The obtained diffusion coefficient value and the swelling process rates satisfy the experimental data form Ref. The derived model explains physical processes during plasma nitriding and allows obtaining nitrogen depth profiles for any requisite nitriding duration.