Cold-water corals (CWCs) are important ecosystem engineers in the deep sea that provide habitat for numerous species and can form large coral mounds. These mounds influence surrounding currents and induce distinct hydrodynamic features, such as internal waves and episodic downwelling events that accelerate transport of organic matter towards the mounds, supplying the corals with food. To date, research on organic matter distribution at coral mounds has focussed either on seasonal timescales or has provided single point snapshots. Data on food distribution at the timescale of a diurnal tidal cycle is currently limited. Here, we integrate physical, biogeochemical, and biological data throughout the water column and along a transect on the south-eastern slope of Rockall Bank, Northeast Atlantic Ocean. This transect consisted of 24-h sampling stations at four locations: Bank, Upper slope, Lower slope, and the Oreo coral mound. We investigated how the organic matter distribution in the water column along the transect is affected by tidal activity. Repeated CTD casts indicated that the water column above Oreo mound was more dynamic than above other stations in multiple ways. First, the bottom water showed high variability in physical parameters and nutrient concentrations, possibly due to the interaction of the tide with the mound topography. Second, in the surface water a diurnal tidal wave replenished nutrients in the photic zone, supporting new primary production. Third, above the coral mound an internal wave (200 m amplitude) was recorded at 400 m depth after the turning of the barotropic tide. After this wave passed, high quality organic matter was recorded in bottom waters on the mound coinciding with shallow water physical characteristics such as high oxygen concentration and high temperature. Trophic markers in the benthic community suggest feeding on a variety of food sources, including phytodetritus and zooplankton. We suggest that there are three transport mechanisms that supply food to the CWC ecosystem. First, small phytodetritus particles are transported downwards to the seafloor by advection from internal waves, supplying high quality organic matter to the CWC reef community. Second, the shoaling of deeper nutrient-rich water into the surface water layer above the coral mound could stimulate diatom growth, which form fast-sinking aggregates. Third, evidence from lipid analysis indicates that zooplankton faecal pellets also enhance supply of organic matter to the reef communities. This study is the first to report organic matter quality and composition over a tidal cycle at a coral mound and provides evidence that fresh high-quality organic matter is transported towards a coral reef during a tidal cycle.

Cold-water corals (CWCs) are important ecosystem engineers in the deep sea that provide habitat for numerous species and can form large coral mounds. These mounds influence surrounding currents and induce distinct hy- drodynamic features, such as internal waves and episodic downwelling events that accelerate transport of organic matter towards the mounds, supplying the corals with food. To date, research on organic matter distribution at coral mounds has focussed either on seasonal timescales or has provided single point snapshots. Data on food distribution at the timescale of a diurnal tidal cycle is currently limited. Here, we integrate physical, biogeochemical, and biological data throughout the water column and along a transect on the south-eastern slope of Rockall Bank, Northeast Atlantic Ocean. This transect consisted of 24-h sampling stations at four locations: Bank, Upper slope, Lower slope, and the Oreo coral mound. We investigated how the organic matter distribution in the water column along the transect is affected by tidal activity. Repeated CTD casts indicated that the water column above Oreo mound was more dynamic than above other stations in multiple ways. First, the bottom water showed high vari- ability in physical parameters and nutrient concentrations, possibly due to the interaction of the tide with the mound topography. Second, in the surface water a diurnal tidal wave replenished nutrients in the photic zone, supporting new primary production. Third, above the coral mound an internal wave (200 m amplitude) was recorded at 400 m depth after the turning of the barotropic tide. After this wave passed, high quality organic matter was recorded in bottom waters on the mound coinciding with shallow water physical characteristics such as high oxygen concentration and high temperature. Trophic markers in the benthic community suggest feeding on a va- riety of food sources, including phytodetritus and zooplankton. We suggest that there are three transport mecha- nisms that supply food to the CWC ecosystem. First, small phytodetritus particles are transported downwards to the seafloor by advection from internal waves, supplying high quality organic matter to the CWC reef community. Second, the shoaling of deeper nutrient-rich water into the surface water layer above the coral mound could stimulate diatom growth, which form fast-sinking aggregates. Third, evidence from lipid analysis indicates that zooplankton faecal pellets also enhance supply of organic matter to the reef communities. This study is the first to report organic matter quality and composition over a tidal cycle at a coral mound and provides evidence that fresh high-quality organic matter is transported towards a coral reef during a tidal cycle. | publishedVersion

Civil conflict began in Ethiopia in November 2020 and has reportedly caused major disrup tions in access to health services, food, and related critical services, in addition to the direct impacts of the conflict on health and well-being. However, the population-level impacts of the conflict have not yet been systematically quantified. We analyze high frequency phone surveys conducted by the World Bank, which included measures of access to basic ser vices, to estimate the impact of the first phase of the war (November 2020 to May 2021) on households in Tigray. After controlling for sample selection, a difference-in-differences approach is used to estimate causal effects of the conflict on population access to health services, food, and water and sanitation. Inverse probability weighting is used to adjust for sample attrition. The conflict has increased the share of respondents who report that they were unable to access needed health services by 35 percentage points (95% CI: 14–55 pp) and medicine by 8 pp (95% CI:2–15 pp). It has also increased the share of households unable to purchase staple foods by 26 pp (95% CI:7–45 pp). The share of households unable to access water did not increase, although the percentage able to purchase soap declined by 17 pp (95% CI: 1–32 pp). We document significant heterogeneity across popula tion groups, with disproportionate effects on the poor, on rural populations, on households with undernourished children, and those living in communities without health facilities. These significant disruptions in access to basic services likely underestimate the true bur den of conflict in the affected population, given that the conflict has continued beyond the survey period, and that worse-affected households may have higher rates of non-response. Documented spatial and household-level heterogeneity in the impact of the conflict may help guide rapid post-conflict responses. | PR | IFPRI3; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance | DSGD

Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

Civil conflict began in Ethiopia in November 2020 and has reportedly caused major disrup tions in access to health services, food, and related critical services, in addition to the direct impacts of the conflict on health and well-being. However, the population-level impacts of the conflict have not yet been systematically quantified. We analyze high frequency phone surveys conducted by the World Bank, which included measures of access to basic ser vices, to estimate the impact of the first phase of the war (November 2020 to May 2021) on households in Tigray. After controlling for sample selection, a difference-in-differences approach is used to estimate causal effects of the conflict on population access to health services, food, and water and sanitation. Inverse probability weighting is used to adjust for sample attrition. The conflict has increased the share of respondents who report that they were unable to access needed health services by 35 percentage points (95% CI: 14–55 pp) and medicine by 8 pp (95% CI:2–15 pp). It has also increased the share of households unable to purchase staple foods by 26 pp (95% CI:7–45 pp). The share of households unable to access water did not increase, although the percentage able to purchase soap declined by 17 pp (95% CI: 1–32 pp). We document significant heterogeneity across popula tion groups, with disproportionate effects on the poor, on rural populations, on households with undernourished children, and those living in communities without health facilities. These significant disruptions in access to basic services likely underestimate the true bur den of conflict in the affected population, given that the conflict has continued beyond the survey period, and that worse-affected households may have higher rates of non-response. Documented spatial and household-level heterogeneity in the impact of the conflict may help guide rapid post-conflict responses.

The safety of the water–energy–food (WEF) system in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is critical to the sustainable development of resources, the economy, and society in the region. This paper uses the projection pursuit model of a real-code accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) to comprehensively evaluate the WEF system security of the CPEC for the period 2000–2016. The results show that from 2000 to 2016, the projection value of the WEF system was reduced from 2.61 to 0.53, and the overall system security showed a downward trend. Moreover, the CPEC increased by 6.13 × 10⁷ people, resulting in a rapid decrease in per capita water resources and decreased security of the water resources subsystem. With the rising social and economic development in recent years, the per capita energy consumption has likewise risen, leading to a decline in the energy subsystem. At the same time, the per capita grain output in the study area has increased from 185 to 205 kg, and the safety of the food subsystem has been enhanced. However, the significant increase in irrigated areas (from 1.82 × 10¹⁰ to 1.93 × 10¹⁰ hectares) has further highlighted the contradiction between the supply and demand of surface water resources, and the number of tube wells increased by 7.23 × 10⁵, resulting in the consumption of a large amount of electricity and diesel resources. The water–energy (WE) subsystem also became less safe. With the implementation of water resources management policies over the past few decades, the proportion of agricultural water consumption dropped from 95.06% in 2000 to 93.97% in 2016, and the safety of the water–food (WF) subsystem increased. Unfortunately, agricultural irrigation consumes a large amount of power resources, leading to a reduction in the security of the energy–food (EF) subsystem. The research results from the present study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of WEF systems across the CPEC region.

The safety of the water&ndash:energy&ndash:food (WEF) system in the China&ndash:Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is critical to the sustainable development of resources, the economy, and society in the region. This paper uses the projection pursuit model of a real-code accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) to comprehensively evaluate the WEF system security of the CPEC for the period 2000&ndash:2016. The results show that from 2000 to 2016, the projection value of the WEF system was reduced from 2.61 to 0.53, and the overall system security showed a downward trend. Moreover, the CPEC increased by 6.13 &times: 107 people, resulting in a rapid decrease in per capita water resources and decreased security of the water resources subsystem. With the rising social and economic development in recent years, the per capita energy consumption has likewise risen, leading to a decline in the energy subsystem. At the same time, the per capita grain output in the study area has increased from 185 to 205 kg, and the safety of the food subsystem has been enhanced. However, the significant increase in irrigated areas (from 1.82 &times: 1010 to 1.93 &times: 1010 hectares) has further highlighted the contradiction between the supply and demand of surface water resources, and the number of tube wells increased by 7.23 &times: 105, resulting in the consumption of a large amount of electricity and diesel resources. The water&ndash:energy (WE) subsystem also became less safe. With the implementation of water resources management policies over the past few decades, the proportion of agricultural water consumption dropped from 95.06% in 2000 to 93.97% in 2016, and the safety of the water&ndash:food (WF) subsystem increased. Unfortunately, agricultural irrigation consumes a large amount of power resources, leading to a reduction in the security of the energy&ndash:food (EF) subsystem. The research results from the present study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of WEF systems across the CPEC region.

The safety of the water–energy–food (WEF) system in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is critical to the sustainable development of resources, the economy, and society in the region. This paper uses the projection pursuit model of a real-code accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) to comprehensively evaluate the WEF system security of the CPEC for the period 2000–2016. The results show that from 2000 to 2016, the projection value of the WEF system was reduced from 2.61 to 0.53, and the overall system security showed a downward trend. Moreover, the CPEC increased by 6.13 × 10⁷ people, resulting in a rapid decrease in per capita water resources and decreased security of the water resources subsystem. With the rising social and economic development in recent years, the per capita energy consumption has likewise risen, leading to a decline in the energy subsystem. At the same time, the per capita grain output in the study area has increased from 185 to 205 kg, and the safety of the food subsystem has been enhanced. However, the significant increase in irrigated areas (from 1.82 × 10¹⁰ to 1.93 × 10¹⁰ hectares) has further highlighted the contradiction between the supply and demand of surface water resources, and the number of tube wells increased by 7.23 × 10⁵, resulting in the consumption of a large amount of electricity and diesel resources. The water–energy (WE) subsystem also became less safe. With the implementation of water resources management policies over the past few decades, the proportion of agricultural water consumption dropped from 95.06% in 2000 to 93.97% in 2016, and the safety of the water–food (WF) subsystem increased. Unfortunately, agricultural irrigation consumes a large amount of power resources, leading to a reduction in the security of the energy–food (EF) subsystem. The research results from the present study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of WEF systems across the CPEC region.