The main aim of this studywas to model avocado production in Turkey for 2016-2025 period using 1988-2015years FAOSTAT data. Avocado production time series data for the 1988-2015period was found non-stationary. Stationarity was obtained after taking thefirst difference of the time series. Three Exponential Smoothing (Holt, Brownand Damped) methods were compared to model avocado production. Brownexponential smoothing model was the most appropriate forecasting model foravocado production. We forecasted that the avocado production in Turkey willshow increase from 2004 tons to 3156 tons for the 2016-2025 period. The resultsof this study could help policy makers to develop macro-level policies for foodsafety and more powerful strategies for better planning avocado production inTurkey for the future. | Bu çalışmanın başlıcaamacı, 1988-2015 yılları avokado üretim FAOSTAT verilerini kullanarak 2016-2025dönemi için Türkiye’deki avokado üretimini modellemektir. 1988-2015 dönemiavokado üretimine ait zaman serisi verilerinin durağan olmadıgı belirlenmiştir.Durağanlık, zaman serilerinin ilk derece farkının alınmasıyla sağlanmıştır.Avokado üretimini tahminlemede üç üstel düzleştirme (Holt, Brown ve Damped)yöntemi kıyaslanmıştır. Brown üstsel düzleştirme modeli, avokado üretiminitahminlemede en uygun yöntem olarak tanımlanmıştır. Türkiye’deki avokadoüretiminin 2016-2025 dönemi için 2004 tondan 3156 tona yükseleceği tespitedilmiştir. Bu araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçların, Türkiye’de gıda güvenliğiiçin makro seviyede politikaların geliştirilmesine ve avokado üretiminingelecekte daha iyi bir şekilde planlanmasına yardımcı olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Modeling urban development patterns is an important technique for understanding complex urban growth processes. In this study, Logistic Regression model was conducted to model urban growth pattern of Gorgan area in North Iran, during the period 1988-2025. To do this, remotely sensed imagery of years 1988, 1998 and 2007 were used to produce land use maps. Also, dependent and independents variables were created to perform urban growth pattern modeling. Then, urban changes were detected during 1988 – 2007 and urban change modelling was achieved using Logistic Regression. After that, future urban grow pattern was predicted. The results indicated that urban areas have increased during study time period. Validation of model results was performed using Pseudo-R2 and ROC values which were more than 0.27and 0.83 respectively. Furthermore, Logistic Regression was applied to predict urban growth patterns for the years of 2016 and 2025. According to the results, appropriate implementations are needed to control land use changes, particularly urban growth, in order to preserve environmental as well as ecological balances of the area. The result could be help the managers to monitor and prevent the unplanned urban development in future. Model’s extracted maps can be used for managing and controlling future urban development.

Haraz River is one of the most important rivers in Iran, which has been faced with successive inappropriate land use changes and environmental degradation practices in recent decades. In this way, the impact of land use changes on stream flow generation, evaporation and hydrological processes of the Haraz basin has been studied. Land use maps for the years of 1988, 2000 and 2013 were prepared and assessed for any changes in land use using land change modeler and logistic regression methods. GEOMOD method was also used for accuracy tests of models. The calibration periods of 1988–2000, 1988–2013 and also Markov chain with hard prediction model were applied in order to predict the future land use for 2025. Besides, SWAT model was used to evaluate the watershed-scale impacts of land use change. Evaluating the calibration periods using GEOMOD method and some parameters showed a more accurate prediction for the period of 1988–2013 than the 1988–2000 period. Likewise, the results indicated that the rate of changes from 2013 to 2025 will be decreased in terms of forest and range lands (6751.05 and 168,09.01 ha, respectively) and will be increased in terms of residential areas, irrigated farming, gardens and bare lands up to 1567.2, 1405.68, 3039.38 and 174,05.55 ha, respectively. The assessment of model efficiency showed that the SWAT model has acceptable performance to simulate the flow discharge. Overall, the model outcomes indicated that land use changes lead to increase the average runoff in the study area. As a matter of fact, this issue has significant effects on water resources, economic and social situations, and hence, efficient strategies are needed for an integrated management in the Haraz basin.

Retreating Arctic sea ice under rapid warming is projected to continue. A new transarctic route, the Northeast Passage (NEP), may open in the near future, with considerable impacts on global shipping transportation. Comprehensive research on the past changes in sea ice in September and future accessibility along the NEP is essential. In this investigation, an unstructured-grid model was used for accurate fitting to the irregular coastal boundary, and accessibility was assessed under two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model from 2021−2050. Significant warming was presented in the deep layer in the Arctic seas along the NEP in recent decades (1988−2016), with a distinct band on the outer edge of the abyssal zone. The positive anomaly of seawater temperature moved westward and increased notably in coastal areas, which made sea ice disappear, and the area was dominated by the negative anomaly in the last decade. The NEP is projected to be navigable for open water ships in September from 2021 to 2025, which would extend to August−October during 2025−2050 under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. In addition, Polar Class 6 ships would be capable of crossing the NEP from August to December during 2021−2025 and from July to December during 2026−2050. The Vilkitsky Strait and Dmitrii Laptev Strait, which are close to the coast, have higher accessibility than the Shokalskiy Strait and Sannikov Strait, especially in the next five years.

The present study utilized time-series Landsat images to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and land use/land-cover (LULC) change in the Kaski District of Nepal from 1988 to 2016. For the specific overtime analysis of change, the LULC transition was clustered into six time periods: 1988–1996, 1996–2000, 2000–2004, 2004–2008, 2008–2013, and 2013–2016. The classification was carried out using a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm and 11 LULC categories were identified. The classified images were further used to predict LULC change scenarios for 2025 and 2035 using the hybrid cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov) model. Major hazard risk areas were identified using available databases, satellite images, literature surveys, and field observations. Extensive field visits were carried out for ground truth data acquisition to verify the LULC maps and identify multihazard risk areas. The overall classification accuracy of the LULC map for each year was observed to be from 85% to 93%. We explored the remarkable increase in urban/built-up areas from 24.06 km2 in 1988 to 60.74 km2 by 2016. A majority of urban/built-up areas were sourced from cultivated land. For the six time periods, totals of 91.04%, 78.68%, 75.90%, 90.44%, 92.35%, and 99.46% of the newly expanded urban land were sourced from cultivated land. Various settlements within and away from the city of Pokhara and cultivated land at the river banks were found at risk. A fragile geological setting, unstable slopes, high precipitation, dense settlement, rampant urbanization, and discrete LULC change are primarily accountable for the increased susceptibility to hazards. The predicted results showed that the urban area is likely to continue to grow by 2025 and 2035. Despite the significant transformation of LULC and the prevalence of multiple hazards, no previous studies have undertaken a long-term time-series and simulation of the LULC scenario. Updated district-level databases of urbanization and hazards related to the Kaski District were lacking. Hence, the research results will assist future researchers and planners in developing sustainable expansion policies that may ensure disaster-resilient sustainable urban development of the study area.

For more than 70 years, the countries of South America have been attempting to eliminate foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), but a regional strategy had not been established by all the affected countries until 1988. The Action Plan 1988–2009 of the Hemispheric Program for the Eradication of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (PHEFA 1988–2009) resulted in an FMD-free status in 88.4% of the bovine population of South America. However, countries of the Andean sub-region maintained an FMD endemic. In addition, sporadic outbreaks in vaccinated cattle populations have been reported in countries of the Southern Cone, endangering the disease-free status in these countries. Within this context, the PHEFA 2011–2020 was approved to eliminate FMD from the subcontinent, and this review describes the most important milestones during its execution. FMD in Ecuador and sporadic outbreaks in the Southern Cone sub-region were effectively eliminated. The outbreaks that occurred in Colombia in 2017 and 2018 were successfully controlled. The type C virus was removed from the vaccines in use in most countries, based on a risk assessment. This review also describes the progress made by the countries advancing toward official recognition as FMD-free in all their territories, with Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru leading the progressive suspension of vaccination to achieve FMD-free status without vaccination. Consequently, at the end of PHEFA 2011–2020, Venezuela was, and still is, the only country in the region whose control program has suffered setbacks, and no evidence has suggested that the transmission and infection of the bovine population have been eliminated. At the end of 2020, a new PHEFA Action Plan 2021–2025 was approved with a five-year horizon, to complete the eradication of the disease in the Americas.

No ano 2025, estima-se que existirão 8,5 bilhões de habitantes no nosso planeta, dos quais 7 bilhões estarão vivendo em países em desenvolvimento da Ásia, África e América Latina. Estará o mundo preparado para produzir e distribuir alimentos para esta população, de forma sustentável e sem degradar o meio ambiente? Dois possíveis cenários se colocam em relação à esta questão. No primeiro, alguns países industrializados continuarão a produzir alimentos bem acima das suas necessidades e exportar o excesso da produção para países em desenvolvimento. Neste caso, os países desenvolvidos deverão exportar cerca de 300 milhões de toneladas por ano de grãos para o mundo em desenvolvimento em 2025. Se forem levadas em consideração as necessidades plenas dos pobres nesta época, outras 400 milhões de toneladas de grãos teriam que ser distribuídas por ano, na forma de ajuda humanitária, ao custo de 44 bilhões de dólares por ano, aos preços de 1988. No segundo, países em desenvolvimento irão aumentar significativamente suas próprias produção de alimentos de forma a suprir suas necessidades, inclusive aquelas das populações carentes, investindo pesadamente em desenvolvimento agrícola, como parte do processo geral de desenvolvimento. Em quaisquer das situações acima, o uso sustentável de recursos genéticos terá grande importância estratégica, visando manter níveis adequados de produtividade, a custos baixos e minimizando os impactos ambientais. O acesso a ampla diversidade genética das espécies de plantas, animais e microorganismos de interesse agrícola, especialmente dos cultivos associados a matriz de alimentação humana, tem se constituído em um dos fatores chaves para o sucesso das atividades de melhoramento genético e, por consequência, para o desenvolvimento das variedades de plantas e de raças animais que alimentam parte significativa da população mundial. Sua conservação e uso é, portanto, uma necessidade estratégica a ser considerada na implementação de políticas e mecanismos voltados para a garantia de produção sustentável de alimentos básicos.

Concerns about the long-run availability of metals have led to speculation that resources that have traditionally been available may become increasingly scarce in the future. To investigate this possibility in the case of nickel, we have built upon the history of nickel flows into use for the period 1988 to the present to develop plausible scenarios for the potential future supply and demand of nickel for the planet, and the associated energy and water use. As in other work, these scenarios are not predictions, but rather stories of possible futures that have the purpose of providing perspective and contemplating policy options. We report herein on our results for nickel supply and demand under four scenarios. We find that calculated nickel demand increases by 140–175% by 2025 and 215–350% by 2050, depending on the scenario. The scenario with the highest prospective demand is termed Equitability World, a scenario of transition to a world of more equitable values and institutions. From the perspective of the results for the four scenarios, we conclude that nickel demands could be met until at least 2050 given known geological nickel resources. The energy and water required for nickel production are anticipated to increase to as much as 0.3% and 0.035% of projected 2050 overall global energy and water demands.

Rivers or watercourses in Sylhet plain of Bangladesh are very dynamic over time. The aim of the present study is to investigate the channel planform dynamics, the prediction of future lateral migration of the bankline and assessment of the hazards associated with Manu River, Bangladesh. The name Manu River represents the river study reach from Tripura, India to Moulvibazar, Bangladesh of 41.6 km. Channel contraction and expansion are very frequent in this river. Studies had shown that the sinuosity of the river varies from 1.36 to 2.48. Also the meandering ratio of the river ranges from 0.32 to 1.67. Satellite data were collected and analyzed to determine the planform characteristics, meandering parameters and bankline migration rates between 1975 and 2013. The study is based on the Landsat satellite imagery of 1975, 1988, 1999, 2003 and 2005 and aerial photograph of 2009 and 2013 which were accumulated from United States Geological Survey. Specific critical bends have been elected where bank erosion and accretion rates were severe. The purpose of this paper is to show the erosion rate, behavior and pattern of upstream side of Manu River, Bangladesh through the study period of 38 years from 1975 to 2013 by comparing its different geomorphological parameters. This study has contributed to develop a model for bankline migration prediction of the forthcoming years and address the physical hazard to provide a risk surface. Present assessment has revealed that, there are some critical regions where erosion would be up to 29.18 hectares in 2025.