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Project valuation and risk assessment in food product development: evidence from fuzzy real option valuation
2021
Pilvere, I., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Silovs, M., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Ozolins, J., Corporate Management Experts Bureau Ltd, Riga, (Latvia) | Nipers, A., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Dmitrijeva, O., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia)
To survive in today's competitive environment, companies must continuously develop and offer customers new products. To increase the probability of a successful business case of investing in the development of a new product, careful attention must be paid to risk analysis in terms of the present value of future potential income. The article considers an example of the research work of the Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, in the framework of which a technical and technological project was developed to produce a new product, like Mediterranean anchovy, from cheaper Baltic sprats. The main goal of this work is to explore the application multi-factor sensitivity and fuzzy real option analysis to the valuation of new product development project. The multivariate analysis of the sensitivity of the financial model of the greenfield production project described in this article revealed the main risk groups, as well as their degree of influence on the assessment of the Net Present Value of the project by a potential investor. The use of Fuzzy Real Option Valuation made it possible to evaluate the project with uncertain parameters, as well as to calculate the potential upside from preliminary refinement of parameters to eliminate negative scenarios. The described approach is applicable to risk assessment of new food product development and allows investors to make a more informed decision about participation in such projects.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Resilience of milk supply chains during and after the Covid-19 crisis in Latvia
2021
Pilvere, I., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Upite, I., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Muska, A., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Zdanovskis, K., EU Office for Agriculture and Rural Development, Ozolnieki, Ozolnieki Municipality (Latvia) | Nipers, A., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Janmere, L., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia)
The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on national economies are characterized as the worst economic turmoil in recent years, as economic growth slowed to the level of the 2008 global financial crisis. At the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, economic growth surveys did not project that the novel virus could have a negative impact on economic growth. As a result of the rapid spread of the virus and the increase in the number of infection cases, national governments took strict measures to limit the spread of the virus, which led to a significant deterioration in the economic situation in all industries of the economy. Agriculture plays an important role in providing food to the country’s population, yet the pandemic made a negative impact on sales volumes and prices in the domestic and international markets. The research aims to assess the impacts of the pandemic on milk supply chains in Latvia and come up with solutions to stabilizing the situation in the dairy sector. The national restrictions to combat the pandemic also hampered the dairy sector concerning the sale of raw milk and finished products in foreign markets, thereby leading to overproduction and stockpiling of the finished products, price dumping and a significant decrease in milk purchase prices to or below the production cost level for many dairy farms. Although there is no indication that the pandemic would lead to a decrease in the numbers of livestock and farms or output in early 2021, it is too early to assess the overall impact of the pandemic on dairy farming, as uncertainty over the duration of pandemic restrictions is a major risk to farm survival. The operation of the dairy sector was stabilized by means of the support provided by the government, as well as the farms’ accumulated financial and feed resources. In order to identify future challenges for milk supply chains, the research performed an analysis of operational risks for milk producers and processors to identify the most important risks and design recommendations for their elimination. The longer there is uncertainty about the return of the dairy sector to pre-pandemic output levels, the more likely it is that the pandemic is going to lead to a decrease in the numbers of dairy livestock and farms.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]State decoupling audit of low-carbon agricultural production
2021
Datsii, O., Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, Kiev (Ukraine) | Levchenko, N., National Univ. Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic (Ukraine) | Shyshkanova, G., National Univ. Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic (Ukraine) | Dmytrenko, R., Vinnytsia National Agrarian Univ. (Ukraine) | Abuselidze, G., Batumi Shota Rustaveli State Univ. (Georgia)
It is stated that the strategic benchmark for transformational changes in the economy is currently low-carbon production, the achievement of which is possible to provide with the consistent application of an arsenal of strict control measures, in particular, the introduction of state audit of low-carbon production. The effectiveness of the mechanism for ensuring the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has been assessed. The necessity of implementation in the domestic practice of the state audit of low-carbon production by the decoupling approach is proved. The agri-business portfolio has been formed according to the decoupling approach as one of the leaders in greenhouse gas pollution. The author's economic and mathematical models of estimation according to the decoupling approach of the impact of branches of crop and livestock production on environmental pollution are proposed. The dependence of greenhouse gas emissions on the volume of gross output of agricultural production, capital investment and current expenditures on environmental protection has been established. The results of a comparative analysis of the realism of forecasts of changes in greenhouse gas emissions according to the methodology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the author's methodology are highlighted. A roadmap for the introduction of a state low-carbon decoupling audit of the state decoupling audit has been proposed as part of the preparation of the second nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement. The expediency of supplementing GRI 300 “Environmental Disclosures” with the group of indicators GRI-305.5 “Reduction of GHG emissions”, formed by the decoupling approach, is substantiated.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Trends in the development of organic farming in Poland and Latvia compared to the EU
2020
Pawlewicz, A., University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn (Poland). Dept. of Agrotechnology, Agricultural Production Management and Agribusiness | Brodzinska, K., University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn (Poland). Dept. of Agrotechnology, Agricultural Production Management and Agribusiness | Zvirbule, A., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development | Popluga, D., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development
The development of organic farming is determined by many factors. On the one hand, it is an increase in demand for food produced in this production system, on the other it is a subsidy system for organic farming under the CAP. The purpose of the article is a comparative analysis of the direction of changes in the development of organic farming in Poland and Latvia compared to the EU in the years 2000–2017. Information was analysed on the organic farming i.e. the area of organic crops, the number of certified farms and organic retail sales, based on FIBL data from the years 2000–2017. An analysis of the trend of changes in organic farming in Poland and Latvia indicates that the development of organic farming in both countries has clearly accelerated after their accession to the EU and after covering organic farming by the CAP support system. However, the case of Poland is definitely different from the trend of changes in organic farming in Latvia and in the EU, where both the number of organic farms and their area increased, with the simultaneous development of the organic food market. There are many indications that mistakes were made in the organic farming subsidy system.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Characteristics and challenges of the Internet of Things in entrepreneurship
2020
Licite-Kurbe, L., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development | Chandramohan, A., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development
The Internet of Things (IoT) is a computing concept that describes the idea of everyday physical objects being connected to the Internet and being able to identify themselves to other devices, and day by day it becomes popular in everyday life as well as in entrepreneurship. The IoT covers broad areas, including manufacturing, the health sector, agriculture, smart cities, security and emergencies among many others. The market for the industrial IoT is estimated to surpass 107 billion euros by 2021 and reach a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% as of 2020. The IoT makes an impact on all industries and provides benefits for various areas of business; however, business may be faced with some risks as well. The research aim is to analyse the benefits and risks of the IoT in entrepreneurship. The descriptive method, analysis and synthesis, the induction and deduction methods were used to achieve the aim. The research has revealed that the IoT can provide several opportunities for business in all fields of operations – marketing, logistics, accounting and human resource management. However, businesses may be faced with some challenges related to privacy and security, processing, analysis and management of data, as well as monitoring and sensing.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]The effect of separated expansion chamber parameters on exhaust pressure oscillations in single cylinder motorcycle engine
2020
Banis, K., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Engineering
This paper investigates the effect of separated exhaust expansion chamber parameters on pressure oscillations in spark-ignited internal combustion (IC) gasoline engines. It is known that exhaust expansion chambers are becoming increasingly more popular among both – original equipment (OE) and aftermarket equipment (AE) exhaust system manufacturers for performance-oriented motorcycles equipped with mainly single cylinder engines, but the companies are reluctant to reveal any detailed principles of operation of the mentioned expansion chambers. The subject of this research is the type of expansion chamber (separate) as used on performance-oriented motorcycles, particularly its’ effect on exhaust pressure pulsations as different chamber volumes, locations and passage sizes are tested. Time-dependent computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was carried out in Solidworks Flow Simulation environment on a simplified exhaust header pipe model imitating engine operation at full load and steady speed. Honda CRF450R motorcycle engine was used as the example and fully defined using a 1D engine performance calculator software to determine the combustion chamber pressure and exhaust valve lift at any given crankshaft position. Volume flow rate of exhaust gasses at the header pipe inlet was calculated based on engine parameters and operating speed. The average pressure values with respect to physical time were measured and graphed across the header pipe inlet cross-section. Eight different header pipe and exhaust expansion chamber combinations were modelled, tested, and results compared at low, medium and high engine speeds. It was found that the presence of exhaust expansion chamber tends to dampen the amplitude and decrease the frequency of pressure oscillations generated at the opening of the exhaust valve(s). Observations show that the addition of an expansion chamber as per design of performance-oriented motorcycles helps to decrease the negative effect of engine tuning while also dampening the positive effect.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Four-link spiral model in the concept of “smart specialization” innovative industrial development
2020
Chernova, O., Southern Federal Univ., Rostov-on-Don (Russian Federation). Faculty of Economics | Klimuk, V., Baranovichi State Univ. (Belarus) | Lazdins, A., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development
One of the mechanisms for enhancing innovative processes in the industry is the application of the concept of the “four-link spiral”. In contrast to the 3-link spiral, this model as one of the most important components includes a “society”, acting as one of the actors of innovative transformations. Firstly, it is society that is the main consumer of innovative products being created and, thereby, establishes “requirements”, forming demands for the quality and parameters of future products; secondly, society, in turn, acts as the initiator and generator of innovations, forming the so-called “social capital” necessary for the implementation of directly innovative transformations. In this scientific work, the problems of the formation of a “smart specialization” strategy for the innovative development of the industrial sector of the national economic system based on the application of the four-link spiral concept are investigated. A system of quantitative indicators for assessing the innovative level of industrial development is presented. The experience of introducing the concept of a four-link spiral as a mechanism of innovative development of industry (on the example of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation) is given. The aim of the article is to describe innovation processes in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus and to develop an innovation transfer model.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Backwardness of Central and Eastern Europe as a heritage of the Soviet period
2020
Ancans, S., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development
The economy of Latvia lags behind economically developed nations approximately fourfold in terms of labour productivity in the tradable sector, which is the key constituent of a modern economy, thereby affecting future sustainable development in the entire country, including the rural areas. The economic backwardness is characteristic of the entire Central and Eastern Europe. This is the heritage of a communist regime that lasted for about half a century and the economic system termed a (centrally) planned economy or a command economy. However, such a term for the communist-period economy is not correct, as it does not represent the purpose it was created for. Accordingly, the paper aims to assess the effect of the communism period on the economic backwardness of the Central and Eastern European region of the EU. A planned economy that existed in all communist countries, with the exception of Yugoslavia, was not introduced to contribute to prosperity. It was intended for confrontation or even warfare by the communist countries under the guidance of the USSR against other countries where no communism regime existed, mostly Western world nations with their market economies. For this reason, it is not correct to term it a (centrally) planned economy or a command economy; the right term is a mobilised (war) economy. An extrapolation of a geometric progression for GDP revealed that during the half a century, Latvia as part of the USSR was forced to spend on confrontation with the West not less than EUR 17 bln. (2011 prices) or approximately one gross domestic product of 2011. The research aim of the paper is to assess the effect of the communism period on the economic backwardness of the Central and Eastern European region of the EU.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]The novel solution for acid whey permeate application in animal feeding
2020
Lakstina, J., Tukuma piens, SC, Tukums (Latvia) | Aboltina, I., Dairy laboratory, Ltd., Ulbroka, Stopiņi Municipality (Latvia) | Vanaga, L., Livestock Experimental Station “Jaunpils”, SC, Jaunpils, Jaunpils Parish (Latvia) | Jonkus, D., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Zagorska, J., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Cinkmanis, I., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia)
The experiment was conducted to analyse the effect of fermented acid whey permeate on milk yield and composition in the lactating cows. Propionic acid bacteria and their metabolites have been used in the lactating cows feeding over decades, primarily to improve growth performance, feed conversation and milk production efficiency. Two groups of the lactating cows were arranged in the study: control group (n=50) and experimental group (n=50). Experimental group’s animals received 0.5 L of fermented whey permeate daily. Acid whey permeate was inoculated with the freeze-dried PS-4 (Propionibacterium freudenreichii subsp. shermanii, Chr.Hansen, Denmark) starter and fermented anaerobically for 48 hours at 20±2 ºC. Fat, protein, lactose and total solids concentration in acid whey permeate and fermented acid whey permeate was analysed by the standard methods, but propionic acid was detected by HPLC. Milk composition and quality indices were determined at the beginning of the study and each month during 6 months period. At the end of the study the feeding of fermented acid whey permeate was stopped, but milk composition and quality data were monitored additionally after one month. Milk fat, protein, lactose, total solids, urea concentration and somatic cell count were analysed by a near infrared spectroscopy. The variability in milk composition and quality data across trial was greater in the experiment group than in the control. Milk fat and somatic cell count were significantly different (p is less than 0.05) than other studied parameters in the experimental group cows’ milk. Milk yield and lactose concentration were tended to increase during feeding of fermented acid whey permeate in the lactating cows without significant differences between control and experimental groups. Fermented acid whey permeate as feed supplement improves energy metabolism for dairy cows which results in the higher milk yield and fat concentration.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Simulation of the flat-parallel movement of a bridge agricultural unit with an articulated frame
2020
Bulgakov, V., National Univ. of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kiev (Ukraine) | Ivanovs, S., Latvia Univ. of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava (Latvia) | Volskyi, V., National Scientific Centre “Inst. for Agricultural Engineering and Electrificationˮ of Ukraine, Hlevakha, Vasylkiv distr., Kiev reg. (Ukraine) | Kuvachоv, V., Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological Univ., Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia obl.(Ukraine) | Ihnatiev, Ye., Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological Univ., Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia obl.(Ukraine)
The work presents foundations of the dynamics of the flat-parallel movement of a bridge agricultural unit in a horizontal with the kinematic method of its control (turning the wheels) by changing the position of one of its parts relative to the other. The analysis of assessment of the degree of impact of the scheme and parameters of the investigated agricultural tool upon its controllability and stability of movement is based on the amplitude and phase frequency characteristics. The mathematical models of the movement of the bridge agricultural unit are presented in a differential and an operator form of recording. Based on mathematical models, the calculated amplitude and phase frequency characteristics of the dynamic control system of the control impact, presented as the angular displacement of its half-frames ψ, are constructed for various parameters and operating modes. The constructed mathematical models, amplitude and phase frequency characteristics make it possible to assess the impact of the control parameter of the bridge agricultural unit, as well as its design and other parameters upon the controllability of the movement.
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