The sediment transport, involving the movement of the bedload and suspended sediment in the basins, is a critical environmental concern that worsens water scarcity and leads to degradation of land and its ecosystems. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have emerged as powerful tools for predicting sediment yield. However, their use by decision-makers can be attributed to concerns regarding their consistency with the involved physical processes. In light of this issue, this study aims to develop a physics-informed ML approach for predicting sediment yield. To achieve this objective, Gaussian, Center, Regular, and Direct Copulas were employed to generate virtual combinations of physical of the sub-basins and hydrological datasets. These datasets were then utilized to train deep neural network (DNN), conventional neural network (CNN), Extra Tree, and XGBoost (XGB) models. The performance of these models was compared with the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE), which serves as a process-based model. The results demonstrated that the ML models outperformed the MUSLE model, exhibiting improvements in Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of approximately 10%, 18%, 32%, and 41% for the DNN, CNN, Extra Tree, and XGB models, respectively. Furthermore, through Sobol sensitivity and Shapley additive explanation–based interpretability analyses, it was revealed that the Extra Tree model displayed greater consistency with the physical processes underlying sediment transport as modeled by MUSLE. The proposed framework provides new insights into enhancing the accuracy and applicability of ML models in forecasting sediment yield while maintaining consistency with natural processes. Consequently, it can prove valuable in simulating process-related strategies aimed at mitigating sediment transport at watershed scales, such as the implementation of best management practices.

The adverse health effects associated with the inhalation and ingestion of naturally occurring radon gas produced during the uranium decay chain mean that there is a need to identify high-risk areas. This study detected radon-prone areas using a geographic information system (GIS)-based probabilistic and machine learning methods, including the frequency ratio (FR) model and a convolutional neural network (CNN). Ten influencing factors, namely elevation, slope, the topographic wetness index (TWI), valley depth, fault density, lithology, and the average soil copper (Cu), calcium oxide (Cao), ferric oxide (Fe₂O₃), and lead (Pb) concentrations, were analyzed. In total, 27 rock samples with high activity concentration index values were divided randomly into training and validation datasets (70:30 ratio) to train the models. Areas were categorized as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low radon areas. According to the models, approximately 40% of the study area was classified as very high or high risk. Finally, the radon potential maps were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. This showed that the CNN algorithm was superior to the FR method; for the former, AUC values of 0.844 and 0.840 were obtained using the training and validation datasets, respectively. However, both algorithms had high predictive power. Slope, lithology, and TWI were the best predictors of radon-affected areas. These results provide new information regarding the spatial distribution of radon, and could inform the development of new residential areas. Radon screening is important to reduce public exposure to high levels of naturally occurring radiation.

Finding an appropriate satellite image as simultaneous as possible with the sampling time campaigns is challenging. Fusion can be considered as a method of integrating images and obtaining more pixels with higher spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions. This paper investigated the impact of Landsat 8-OLI and Sentinel-2A data fusion on prediction of several toxic elements at a mine waste dump. The 30 m spatial resolution Landsat 8-OLI bands were fused with the 10 m Sentinel-2A bands using various fusion techniques namely hue-saturation-value (HSV), Brovey, principal component analysis (PCA), Gram-Schmidt (GS), wavelet, and area-to-point regression kriging (ATPRK). ATPRK was the best method preserving both spectral and spatial features of Landsat 8-OLI and Sentinel-2A after fusion. Furthermore, the partial least squares regression (PLSR) model developed on genetic algorithm (GA)-selected laboratory visible-near infrared-shortwave infrared (VNIR–SWIR) spectra yielded more accurate prediction results compared to the PLSR model calibrated on the entire spectra. It was hence, applied to both individual sensors and their ATPRK-fused image. In case of the individual sensors, except for As, Sentinel-2A provided more robust prediction models than Landsat 8-OLI. However, the best performances were obtained using the fused images, highlighting the potential of data fusion to enhance the toxic elements’ prediction models.

Evaluating ozone levels at high resolutions and accuracy is crucial for understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of ozone distribution and assessing ozone exposure levels in epidemiological studies. The national models with high spatiotemporal resolutions to predict ground ozone concentrations are limited in China so far. In this study, we aimed to develop a random forest model by combining ground ozone measurements from fixed stations, ozone simulations from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, meteorological parameters, population density, road length, and elevation to predict ground maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations at a daily level and 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. The model cross-validation R² and root mean squared error (RMSE) were 0.80 and 20.93 μg/m³ at daily level in 2013–2019, respectively. CMAQ ozone simulations and near-surface temperature played vital roles in predicting ozone concentrations among all predictors. The population-weighted median concentrations of predicted MDA8 ozone were 89.34 μg/m³ in mainland China in 2013, and reached 100.96 μg/m³ in 2019. However, the long-term temporal variations among regions were heterogeneous. Central and Eastern China, as well as the Southeast Coastal Area, suffered higher ozone pollution and higher increased rates of ozone concentrations from 2013 to 2019. The seasonal pattern of ozone pollution varied spatially. The peak-season ozone pollution with the highest 6-month ozone concentrations occurred in different months among regions, with more than half domain in April–September. The predictions showed that not only the annual mean concentrations but also the percentages of grid-days with MDA8 ozone concentrations higher than 100/160 μg/m³ have been increasing in the past few years in China; meanwhile, majority areas in mainland China suffered peak-season ozone concentrations higher than the air quality guidelines launched by the World Health Organization in September 2021. The proposed model and ozone predictions with high spatiotemporal resolution and full coverage could provide health studies with flexible choices to evaluate ozone exposure levels at multiple spatiotemporal scales in the future.

Traffic contributes to fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) in the atmosphere through engine exhaust emissions and road dust generation. However, the evolution of traffic related PM₂.₅ emission over recent years remains unclear, especially when various efforts to reduce emission e.g., aftertreatment technologies and high emission standards from China IV to China V, have been implemented. In this study, hourly elemental carbon (EC), a marker of primary engine exhaust emissions, and trace element of calcium (Ca), a marker of road dust, were measured at a nearby highway sampling site in Shanghai from 2016 to 2019. A random forest-based machine learning algorithm was applied to decouple the influences of meteorological variables on the measured EC and Ca, revealing the deweathered trend in exhaust emissions and road dust. After meteorological normalization, we showed that non-exhaust emissions, i.e., road dust from traffic, increased their fractional contribution to PM₂.₅ over recent years. In particular, road dust was found to be more important, as revealed by the deweathered trend of Ca fraction in PM₂.₅, increasing at 6.1% year⁻¹, more than twice that of EC (2.9% year⁻¹). This study suggests that while various efforts have been successful in reducing vehicular exhaust emissions, road dust will not abate at a similar rate. The results of this study provide insights into the trend of traffic-related emissions over recent years based on high temporal resolution monitoring data, with important implications for policymaking.

Cyclists can be easily exposed to traffic-related pollutants due to riding on or close to the road during commuting in cities. PM₂.₅ has been identified as one of the major pollutants emitted by vehicles and associated with cardiopulmonary and respiratory diseases. As routing has been suggested to reduce the exposures for cyclists, in this study, PM₂.₅ was monitored with low-cost sensors during commuting periods to develop models for identifying low exposure routes in three Asian cities: Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul. The models for mapping the PM₂.₅ in the cities were developed by employing the random forest algorithm in a two-stage modeling approach. The land use features to explain spatial variation of PM₂.₅ were obtained from the open-source land use database, OpenStreetMap. The total length of the monitoring routes ranged from 101.36 to 148.22 km and the average PM₂.₅ ranged from 13.51 to 15.40 μg/m³ among the cities. The two-stage models had the standard k-fold cross-validation (CV) R² of 0.93, 0.74, and 0.84 in Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul, respectively. To address spatial autocorrelation, a spatial cross-validation approach applying a distance restriction of 100 m between the model training and testing data was employed. The over-optimistic estimates on the predictions were thus prevented, showing model CV-R² of 0.91, 0.67, and 0.78 respectively in Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul. The comparisons between the shortest-distance and lowest-exposure routes showed that the largest percentage of reduced averaged PM₂.₅ exposure could reach 32.1% with the distance increases by 37.8%. Given the findings in this study, routing behavior should be encouraged. With the daily commuting trips expanded, the cumulative effect may become significant on the chronic exposures over time. Therefore, a route planning tool for reducing the exposures shall be developed and promoted to the public.

With increasingly stringent regulations on emission criteria and environment pollution concerns, marine fuel oils (particularly heavy fuel oils) that are commonly used today for powering ships will no longer be allowed in the future. Various maritime energy strategies are now needed for the long-term upgrade that might span decades, and quantitative predictions are necessary to assess the outcomes of their implementation for decision support purpose. To address the technical need, a novel approach is developed in this study that can incorporate the strategic implementation of fuel choices and quantify their adequacy in meeting future environmental pollution legislations for ship emissions. The core algorithm in this approach is based on probabilistic simulations with a large sample size of ship movement in the designated port area, derived using a Bayesian ship traffic generator from existing real activity data. Its usefulness with scenario modelling is demonstrated with application examples at five major ports, namely the Ports of Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, Long Beach, and Hamburg, for assessment at Years 2020, 2030, and 2050 with three economic scenarios. The included fuel choices in the application examples are comprehensive, including heavy fuel oils, distillates, low sulphur fuel oils, ultra-low sulphur fuel oils, liquefied natural gas, hydrogen, biofuel, methanol, and electricity (battery). Various features are fine-tuned to reflect micro-level changes on the fuel choices, terminal location, and/or ship technology. Future atmospheric pollutant emissions with various maritime energy strategies implemented at these ports are then discussed comprehensively in details to demonstrate the usefulness of the approach.

During March 2020, most European countries implemented lockdowns to restrict the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19 through their populations. These restrictions had positive impacts for air quality due to a dramatic reduction of economic activity and atmospheric emissions. In this work, a machine learning approach was designed and implemented to analyze local air quality improvements during the COVID-19 lockdown in Graz, Austria. The machine learning approach was used as a robust alternative to simple, historical measurement comparisons for various individual pollutants. Concentrations of NO₂ (nitrogen dioxide), PM₁₀ (particulate matter), O₃ (ozone) and Oₓ (total oxidant) were selected from five measurement sites in Graz and were set as target variables for random forest regression models to predict their expected values during the city’s lockdown period. The true vs. expected difference is presented here as an indicator of true pollution during the lockdown. The machine learning models showed a high level of generalization for predicting the concentrations. Therefore, the approach was suitable for analyzing reductions in pollution concentrations. The analysis indicated that the city’s average concentration reductions for the lockdown period were: -36.9 to −41.6%, and −6.6 to −14.2% for NO₂ and PM₁₀, respectively. However, an increase of 11.6–33.8% for O₃ was estimated. The reduction in pollutant concentration, especially NO₂ can be explained by significant drops in traffic-flows during the lockdown period (−51.6 to −43.9%). The results presented give a real-world example of what pollutant concentration reductions can be achieved by reducing traffic-flows and other economic activities.

Pollutants in real aquatic systems commonly occur as chemical mixtures. Yet, the corresponding risk assessment is still mostly based on information on single-pollutant toxicity, accepting the assumption that pollutant mixtures exhibit additive toxicity effect which is often not the case. Therefore, it is still better to use the experimental approach. Unfortunately, experimental determination of toxicity for each mixture is practically unfeasible. In this study, quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for the prediction of toxicity of binary mixtures towards bioluminescent bacteria Vibrio fischeri were developed at three toxicity levels (EC₁₀, EC₃₀ and EC₅₀). For model development, experimentally determined toxicity values of 14 pollutants (pharmaceuticals and pesticides) were correlated with their structural features, applying multiple linear regression together with genetic algorithm. Statistical analysis, internal validation and external validation of the models were carried out. The toxicity is accurately predicted by all three models. EC₃₀ and EC₅₀ values are mostly influenced by geometrical distances between nitrogen and sulfur atoms. Furthermore, the simultaneous presence of oxygen and chlorine atoms in mixture can induce the increase in toxicity. At lower effect levels (EC₁₀), nitrogen atom bonded to different groups has the highest impact on mixture toxicity. Thus, the analysis of the descriptors involved in the developed models can give insight into toxic mechanisms of the binary systems.

In the present work, we propose a novel algorithm to determine the scattering coefficient of OA by evaluating the relationships of the MSEs for primary organic aerosol (POA) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) with their mass concentrations at three distinct sites, i.e. an urban site, a rural site, and a background site in China. Our results showed that the MSEs for POA and SOA increased rapidly as a function of mass concentration in low mass loading. While the increasing rate declined after a threshold of mass loading of 50 μg/m³ for POA, and 15 μg/m³ for SOA, respectively. The dry scattering coefficients of submicron particles (PM₁) were reconstructed based on the algorithm for POA and SOA scattering coefficient and further verified by using multi-site data. The calculated dry scattering coefficients using our reconstructing algorithm have good consistency with the measured ones, with the high correlation and small deviation in Shanghai (R² = 0.98; deviations: 2.9%) and Dezhou (R² = 0.90; deviations: 4.7%), indicating that our algorithms for OA and PM₁ are applicable to predict the scattering coefficient of OA and Submicron particle (PM₁) in China.